Reading SMC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SMC free→Reading SMC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SMC free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly approach. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with SMC trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 65% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $28.89. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $29 SMC trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $83 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 65% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated weak grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted -270.52x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.37 → $-0.37 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$124.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$415.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,713.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choice can change interest rates. This affects the economy and energy demand.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates. This shows the economy is strong.
Confirms the other:FOMC lowers interest rates. This shows the economy is weak.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SMC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 1, 2026, Summit Midstream Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing an inaugural stock repurchase program to repurchase up to $35.0 million of the Company’s outstanding common stock, par value $0.01 per share. The full text of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SMC Summit Midstream Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
WMB Williams Companies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KMI Kinder Morgan | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | full | moderate |
ET ENERGY TRANSFER LP | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRGP Targa Resources | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Reiterating full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $225 million to $265 million.
Maintain 2026 capital expenditure guidance of $50 million to $70 million, excluding Double E.
Why it matters: The earnings report can show how the company is doing financially. It may also show changes in operations.
Confirms one read:Announcement of the next earnings date with positive guidance.
Confirms the other:There is no news or bad guidance about earnings.
shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, whether or not filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such document.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 31, 2026, Summit Midstream Corporation, a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”), by and among the Company, Summit Midstream Partners, LP, a Delaware limited partnership (the “Partnership”), and Tall Oak Midstream Holdings, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (the “Tall Oak Midstream Holdings”), and solely for purposes of modifying certain existing registration rig…
by reference. The Shares were issued in reliance on the exemption from registration requirements under the Securities Act, pursuant to Section 4(a)(2) thereof.
shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, whether or not filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such document.