Reading SKWD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SKWD free→Reading SKWD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SKWD free→NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Risk is moderate, and compared with sector peers, SKWD is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $49.62. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $49 SKWD trades at 11× p/e, in line with its 11× p/e peer median. Our $50 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 2% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.22 → $1.19 (-2.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 8 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 69% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 26.2% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$145.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$333.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,041.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would impact investor confidence in Skyward's growth potential.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below its median of about 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above its median of about 15% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SKWD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
As provided in General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information and exhibits contained in this Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall they be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. Forward-Looking Statements Statements made in this Current Report on Form 8-K, o…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SKWD Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CB Chubb Limited | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Target gross written premiums between $2.65 billion and $2.8 billion for the fiscal year.
Successfully complete the acquisition of Apollo to enhance strategic growth.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensator Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 25, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the form of executive employment agreement (the “Form Agreement”) to be entered into from time to time with the executive officers of the Company, at the discretion of the Board. The Form Agreement provides, among other thin…
As provided in General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information and exhibits contained in this Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall they be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. Forward-Looking Statements Statements made in this Current Report on Form 8-K, o…
by reference. On the Closing Date, the Company completed the Acquisition pursuant to the Apollo SPAs and acquired 100% of the issued and outstanding share capital of Apollo. Pursuant to the Apollo SPAs, the Company paid approximately $555.0 million in connection with the Acquisition, which included (i) $371.0 million in cash (the “Cash Consideration”) and (ii) the issuance of 3,679,332 shares of the Company’s common stock. The Cash Consideration was funded with the proceeds from the Facility…
by reference. On December 30, 2025, the Company entered into a Term Loan Credit Agreement (the “Facility”) by and among the Company, as Borrower, the lenders from time to time parties thereto (each a “Lender” and collectively, the “Lenders”), Barclays Bank PLC, as Administrative Agent (the “Agent”), and the Agent, Truist Securities, Inc., Citizens Bank, N.A. and Texas Capital Bank as joint lead arrangers, joint book runners and co-syndication agents for the Tranche B Term Facility. The facili…