Reading SHOO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SHOO free→Reading SHOO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SHOO free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFootwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is neutral, and management's track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, SHOO is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 71% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $45.42. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $45 SHOO trades at 29× p/e — 1.9× the 15× p/e peer median, and above its own 17× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $27 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $40–$52. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 71% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.58x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.32 → $0.32 (+0.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 2 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.3% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$158.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$378.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,173.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue growth guidance shows the company is on track for its targets. It reflects strong demand and effective marketing.
Confirms:Management confirms Q2 revenue growth guidance of 10% to 12% during the earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers Q2 revenue growth guidance to below 10%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SHOO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement filed by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by reference. The furnishing of the information in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$40.00 – $52.00 (median $42.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Footwear.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SHOO Steven Madden, Ltd. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
DECK Deckers Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CROX Crocs | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
WWW Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | fair | elevated |
WEYS Weyco Group, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to grow its fiscal 2026 revenue by 10% to 12% compared to fiscal 2025.
The company continues to declare a quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per share.
The company aims to enhance its cash flow from operating activities.
Why it matters: Confirming the cash dividend shows the company values its shareholders. It shows financial health.
Confirms:The company pays the quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per share on June 19, 2026.
Disproves:The company cuts or stops the quarterly cash dividend payment.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows stronger operations. It also means more financial stability.
Confirms:Cash from operating activities is up from the last quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities goes down or stays the same.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows the company is on track to reach its annual growth goal.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth of 10% or more compared to the previous year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is under 10%. This shows slower performance.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it may signal a change in the sector's growth phase.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported below the sector median.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the sector median.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show trends in sales and how much money the company makes.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above the sector median.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below the sector median.
Other Events. The Company’s press release on May 6, 2026 also announced that the Company’s Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per share on the Company’s outstanding shares of common stock. The dividend is payable on June 19, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on June 8, 2026. The full text of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement filed by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by reference. The furnishing of the information in
Other Events. The Company’s press release on February 25, 2026 also announced that the Company’s Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per share on the Company’s outstanding shares of common stock. The dividend is payable on March 20, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on March 11, 2026. The full text of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in