Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$43.46+0.70%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Fiscal 2026 revenue growth of 10% to 12%: FY26 revenue guidance $1.1B-$1.3B (approx 10-12% YoY) vs 10-12% target.
Steven Madden grows revenue about 10% to 12% in 2026. Profit beats show good execution with EPS guidance near $2.6. The company pays steady dividends and has a strong brand in footwear. Analysts expect continued growth and margin stability.
Revenue fell sharply in Q1 2026, down from $753.7M to $653.1M. Cash from operations dropped from $91.1M to negative $55.3M, showing cash flow problems. The stock trades expensive with a PE of 25.6 versus peers at 17.3.
The price is about 17% above our fair value near $34, reflecting roughly 10% revenue growth. Our fair value is 25% below the Street median, which is more optimistic. We see moderate risk given recent cash flow weakness.
Breaks if: Cash flow remains negative or worsens through FY26
Focus on improving cash flow from operating activities to strengthen financial health and support growth initiatives.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue growth and consistent dividend payments. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance but facing some sector headwinds.
The market seems to have priced in a level of fragility due to weak execution quality, but this is not fully reflected in the current valuation. SHOO is viewed as expensive compared to its peers, with a premium of 1.61 times.
Management is on track to achieve its revenue growth target of 11% to 13% for fiscal 2026, with recent quarterly revenue showing strong year-over-year growth. However, cash from operating activities has been volatile, indicating mixed progress in this area.
The thesis hinges on maintaining revenue growth and managing cash flow effectively, as well as external factors like inflation and sector performance. If major competitors continue to perform well, it could positively influence SHOO's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings beat is a positive factor. However, a sharp drop in the stock price may indicate a repricing of the thesis. This suggests that the market is reassessing the reasons to own SHOO.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operating activities showed volatility, with a negative $55.3 million in 2026-Q1 improving sharply to $204.6 million in 2026-Q2. This indicates management is making progress on improving operating cash flow, though the trajectory is uneven.
“Cash from operating activities was $204.6 million in 2026-Q2.”
“Cash from operating activities was negative $55.3 million in 2026-Q1.”
“Cash from operating activities was $91.1 million in 2025-Q4.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.3 in FY26
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26
Raise fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to an 11% to 13% increase compared to fiscal 2025, reflecting strong brand momentum and channel growth.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $2.534 billion in 2025 to an expected 11% to 13% increase in 2026. Quarterly revenue increased 19.1% year-over-year to $665.9 million in 2026-Q2 from $559.0 million in 2025-Q2. Management has consistently raised and reaffirmed this revenue growth target, delivering on the trajectory.
“The Company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue will increase 11% to 13% compared to fiscal 2025.”
“The Company is raising its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance and introducing fiscal 2026 diluted earnings per share guidance. The Company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue will increase 10% to 12% compared…”
“For 2026, the Company expects revenue will increase 9% to 11% compared to 2025.”
Overall, SHOO's fundamentals are strong, but caution is warranted due to potential risks. Not investment advice.