Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO)

Q: What's priced into Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) stock?

SHOO trades at a 1.6-times premium versus peers, and the valuation evidence points to an expensive setup. The expectations gap is 0.06, while the pricing assessment says the fragility is justified rather than reflecting a broader stack of weak execution and turbulence.

Q: What does the Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) outlook hinge on?

The multi-year thesis depends on management sustaining its revenue-growth trajectory and improving the consistency of operating cash flow. A guidance cut after the recent increase would damage credibility as well as lower expectations. Sector momentum is another swing factor: continued strength from NKE, DECK, and CROX would support the backdrop, while weaker results or guidance from them could remove that tailwind.

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$43.21-2.72%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Steven Madden, Ltd.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	778.19M
EPS	—	0.571
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.87B
EPS	$2.05–$2.15non-GAAP $2.55–$2.65GAAP	2.194
Revenue growth	11%–13%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.08B
EPS	—	2.726

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve cash from operating activities	A supporting condition in Steven Madden, Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is Positive cash flow from operations by FY26.	Broken	Cash flow remains negative or worsens through FY26	Cash from operations: $213.336M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Positive cash flow from operations by FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026213,336,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operating activities showed volatility, with a negative $55.3 million in 2026-Q1 improving sharply to $204.6 million in 2026-Q2. This indicates management is making progress on improving operating cash flow, though the trajectory is uneven. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS near $2.6 in FY26	Profit beats show good execution with EPS guidance near $2.6.	Intact	EPS falls below $2.3 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.38 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $2.55 and <= $2.65. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.38 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 16a3a16d-da72-46ed-b3e3-34c9922eafaa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Fiscal 2026 revenue growth of 10% to 12%	A primary condition in Steven Madden, Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is 10% to 12% YoY revenue growth.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 19.12% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 10% to 12% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 202619.117174 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 16a3a16d-da72-46ed-b3e3-34c9922eafaa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $2.534 billion in 2025 to an expected 11% to 13% increase in 2026. Quarterly revenue increased 19.1% year-over-year to $665.9 million in 2026-Q2 from $559.0 million in 2025-Q2. Management has consistently raised and reaffirmed this revenue growth target, delivering on the trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$2.70 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.08B

$3.05B → $3.08B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.70	$3,050,154,670	9 / 7
2026-07-25	$2.71	$3,050,726,100	8 / 7
2026-07-26	$2.71	$3,050,726,100	8 / 7
2026-07-27	$2.70	$3,050,726,100	9 / 7
2026-07-28	$2.70	$3,050,726,100	9 / 7
2026-07-29	$2.70	$3,051,286,100	9 / 7
2026-07-30	$2.70	$3,051,286,100	9 / 7
2026-07-31	$2.70	$3,051,286,100	9 / 7
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$3,047,614,671	4 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$3,057,905,027	4 / 5
2026-08-03	$2.77	$3,093,179,320	9 / 7
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$3,057,905,027	4 / 5
2026-08-05	$2.77	$3,097,179,320	9 / 7
2026-08-06	$2.77	$3,097,179,320	9 / 7
2026-08-08	$2.77	$3,097,179,320	9 / 7
2026-08-09	$2.77	$3,097,179,320	9 / 7
2026-08-10	$2.77	$3,097,179,320	9 / 7
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$3,057,905,027	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$3,057,905,027	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$3,057,905,027	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$3,057,905,027	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$3,057,905,027	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$3,057,905,027	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$3,057,905,027	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$3,057,905,027	4 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$3,087,612,525	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$3,087,632,525	4 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$3,087,632,525	4 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$3,087,632,525	4 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$3,087,632,525	4 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$3,087,632,525	4 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$3,091,193,525	4 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$3,091,193,525	4 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$3,091,193,525	4 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$3,091,193,525	4 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$3,091,193,525	4 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$3,091,193,525	4 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$3,091,193,525	4 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$3,091,193,525	4 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$3,091,193,525	4 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$3,091,193,525	4 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$3,082,218,447	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$3,082,218,447	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$3,082,218,447	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$3,082,218,447	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	1	1
2026-06-01	7	1	1
2026-07-01	7	1	1
2026-08-01	7	1	1
2026-09-01	8	1	1
2026-10-01	8	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve cash from operating activitiesPublished status: Broken
EPS near $2.6 in FY26Diluted EPS: $0.38 per share
Fiscal 2026 revenue growth of 10% to 12%Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Steven Madden, Ltd. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SHOO is a growth-oriented consumer discretionary business, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry. Its long-term thesis is intact, and its signal recently improved from mixed to mildly favorable. The evidence is medium confidence, while earnings quality remains fragile.

What's priced into Steven Madden, Ltd.

SHOO trades at a 1.6-times premium versus peers, and the valuation evidence points to an expensive setup. The expectations gap is 0.06, while the pricing assessment says the fragility is justified rather than reflecting a broader stack of weak execution and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong: second-quarter revenue grew 19.1% year over year, and management has maintained an 11% to 13% fiscal 2026 revenue growth priority. Operating cash flow improved sharply from the first to the second quarter, but its path remains uneven. Near-term miss risk is rated low, though the record includes a deep past miss and earnings surprises have been trending down.

What Steven Madden, Ltd. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on management sustaining its revenue-growth trajectory and improving the consistency of operating cash flow. A guidance cut after the recent increase would damage credibility as well as lower expectations. Sector momentum is another swing factor: continued strength from NKE, DECK, and CROX would support the backdrop, while weaker results or guidance from them could remove that tailwind.

Bottom line

The 1-to-3-year view remains intact, but the premium valuation makes dependable execution important. The central tests are sustaining growth, making cash flow less uneven, and avoiding a reversal in guidance. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	778.19M
EPS	—	0.571
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.87B
EPS	$2.05–$2.15non-GAAP $2.55–$2.65GAAP	2.194
Revenue growth	11%–13%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.08B
EPS	—	2.726

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$2.70 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.08B

$3.05B → $3.08B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.70	$3,050,154,670	9 / 7
2026-07-25	$2.71	$3,050,726,100	8 / 7
2026-07-26	$2.71	$3,050,726,100	8 / 7
2026-07-27	$2.70	$3,050,726,100	9 / 7
2026-07-28	$2.70	$3,050,726,100	9 / 7
2026-07-29	$2.70	$3,051,286,100	9 / 7
2026-07-30	$2.70	$3,051,286,100	9 / 7
2026-07-31	$2.70	$3,051,286,100	9 / 7
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$3,047,614,671	4 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$3,057,905,027	4 / 5
2026-08-03	$2.77	$3,093,179,320	9 / 7
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$3,057,905,027	4 / 5
2026-08-05	$2.77	$3,097,179,320	9 / 7
2026-08-06	$2.77	$3,097,179,320	9 / 7
2026-08-08	$2.77	$3,097,179,320	9 / 7
2026-08-09	$2.77	$3,097,179,320	9 / 7
2026-08-10	$2.77	$3,097,179,320	9 / 7
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$3,057,905,027	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$3,057,905,027	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$3,057,905,027	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$3,057,905,027	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$3,057,905,027	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$3,057,905,027	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$3,057,905,027	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$3,057,905,027	4 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$3,070,569,472	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$3,087,612,525	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$3,068,557,175	4 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$3,087,632,525	4 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$3,087,632,525	4 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$3,087,632,525	4 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$3,087,632,525	4 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$3,087,632,525	4 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$3,091,193,525	4 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$3,091,193,525	4 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$3,091,193,525	4 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$3,091,193,525	4 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$3,091,193,525	4 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$3,091,193,525	4 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$3,091,193,525	4 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$3,091,193,525	4 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$3,091,193,525	4 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$3,091,193,525	4 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$3,082,218,447	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$3,082,218,447	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$3,082,218,447	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$3,082,218,447	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings