Reading FOSL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FOSL free→Reading FOSL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FOSL free→
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFootwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 76% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. If FOSL cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.41. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.29 FOSL trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $18 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 77% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.32x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.10 → $-0.22 (-131.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$253.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$710.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,227.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data will indicate consumer spending trends. This impacts Fossil's sales outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows growth above 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows decline or growth below 0.5% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FOSL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 13, 2026, Fossil Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the fiscal quarter ended April 4, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report and the accompanying exhibit are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), and are not in…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Footwear.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FOSL Fossil Group Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
DECK Deckers Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CROX Crocs | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SHOO Steven Madden, Ltd. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
WWW Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve break-even free cash flow by the end of fiscal year 2026.
The company aims to maintain an adjusted operating margin between 3% and 5% for the fiscal year 2026.
Management expects a return to revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2026 after a projected decline.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects consumer spending. A strong GDP report may boost Fossil's outlook.
Confirms one read:GDP report shows growth above 2% for Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:GDP report shows growth below 1% for Q1 2026.
Why it matters: This report will show if Fossil can improve its loss-making status. Investors will focus on revenue and profit trends.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth turning positive year over year.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows that revenue is still going down. It also shows bigger losses.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 24, 2026, Joe Martin informed Fossil Group, Inc. (the “Company”) of his decision to resign from his position as Chief Commercial Officer of the Company to pursue other interests. Mr. Martin’s last day of employment with the Company will be May 8, 2026. Franco Fogliato, Chief Executive Officer, will assume Mr. Martin’s responsibilities effe…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 11, 2026, Fossil Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended January 3, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report and the accompanying exhibit are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), a…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 13, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the fiscal quarter ended October 4, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report and the accompanying exhibit is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incor…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On November 13, 2025 (the “Closing Date”), following the occurrence of the “Restructuring Effective Date” in relation to the Restructuring Plan (as defined herein), Fossil Group, Inc. (the “Company”) consummated the previously announced offer to exchange (the “Exchange Offer”) its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026 (the “Old Notes”) and its concurrent rights offering (the “Rights Offering”) pursuant to a restructuring plan under Part 26A of the UK Companie…