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Designer Brands, Inc. (DBI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFootwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$6.49-6.08%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is steady, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, while risk is high and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 41% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of bellwethers like NKE, DECK, and CROX. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Footwear & Accessories
- Market cap
- $350.87M
- Employees
- 13,000
- IPO date
- 2005-03-14
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$12.33consensus
Range $6.67 – $24.85
vs price: -47% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$27.89consensus
Range $19.49 – $36.29
vs price: -77% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $6.92 DBI trades at 16× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $9.77 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
16.1x
peer 15.4x · own history —
Premium
1.0x peer
Growth the price needs
-29%
our forecast -2%
Our fair value
$9.77
range $6.68 – $20.53
WhyValuation methods disagree
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 29% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
40th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 10.21x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
95th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish2 analysts, 0% Buyfor period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.26 → $0.26 (-2.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 1.7% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$276.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$694.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,872.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for retail sales data on June 17
Why it matters: Retail sales data impacts consumer spending. It can affect Designer Brands' sales outlook.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-116d agoYahoo! Finance
Earnings miss raises concerns about future EPS guidance.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like NKE, DECK, and CROX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting DBI and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If DBI raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-06-09), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If DBI cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-06-09), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NKE, DECK, and CROX start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping DBI and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits DBI and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-098d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 9, 2026 , Designer Brands Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its consolidated financial results for the quarter ended May 2, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated by reference herein. Pursuant to General Instruction B.2 of Current Report on Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for pur…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+6.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.