Reading VRA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VRA free→Reading VRA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VRA free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFootwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 66% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. If VRA cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.69. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.69 VRA trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $10 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 65% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.14x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.01 → $0.01 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$267.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$759.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,020.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Higher gross profit shows better cost management. This can lead to a stronger financial outlook.
Confirms:Gross profit reported above $28.8M in Q2.
Disproves:Gross profit reported below $28.8M in Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Stabilize business with revenue target $255M-$270M
Earnings call highlights positive turnaround momentum.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On June 11, 2026 , Vera Bradley, Inc. issued an earnings press release for the quarterly period ended May 2, 2026. The press release, including attachments, is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Footwear.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VRA Vera Bradley Inc | — | inexpensive | elevated |
DECK Deckers Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CROX Crocs | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SHOO Steven Madden, Ltd. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
WWW Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | fair | elevated |
15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on stabilizing the business with a revenue target range of $255 million to $270 million for fiscal 2027.
Anticipate improvements in gross profit and SG&A rates to enable operating loss improvement.
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue target shows progress in stabilizing the business. It can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported at or above $255M.
Disproves:Q2 revenue reported below $255M.
Why it matters: Consumer spending affects Vera Bradley's sales. Strong retail sales can signal better demand for their products.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows growth above 0.5% for May.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows decline or flat growth for May.
Revenue growth aligns with positive strategic direction.
Earnings transcript confirms positive outlook and strategy.
Significant improvement in operating loss signals positive future guidance.
Revenue growth missed forecasts, indicating potential issues.
Earnings miss suggests ongoing financial challenges.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 24, 2026, Vera Bradley, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that long-time board member Carrie Tharp has decided not to stand for re-election at the upcoming 2026 Shareholder Meeting. Ms. Tharp's decision to not stand for re-election did not result from any disagreement with the Company concerning any matter relating to its operations, policies…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 17, 2026, Vera Bradley, Inc. (the “Company”) and Equiniti Trust Company, LLC, as rights agent (the “Rights Agent”), executed Amendment No. 2 (the “Amendment”) to the Rights Agreement, dated as of October 11, 2024, by and between the Company and the Rights Agent, as amended by that certain Amendment No. 1 to the Rights Agreement, dated as of October 10, 2025 (as amended, the “Rights Agreement”). The Amendment accelerates the expiration date…
Material Modifications to Rights of Security Holders. The information set forth under
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (c) Appointment of Certain Officers. On March 12, 2026, Vera Bradley, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Ian Bickley has been appointed Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of Directors, effective March 12, 2026. Mr. Bickley has served as the Company's Executive Chair and Interim Chief Executive Officer since June, 2025. Mr. Bickley,…