Reading DECK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DECK free→Reading DECK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DECK free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFootwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared to sector peers, where DECK trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly influence DECK's outlook.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $112.50. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $112 DECK trades at 16× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $137 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $90–$145. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 18% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.15x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.93 → $0.87 (-5.9% / 30d). 2 raised, 11 cut, 18 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 1 downgrade / 30d, 4 maintained. 42% of analysts rate Buy.
8 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.6% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$129.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$376.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,581.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings below guidance mean less profit. This could hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Diluted EPS is below $7.30.
Disproves:Diluted EPS reported at or above $7.30.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DECK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Such information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof, regard…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$90.00 – $145.00 (median $121.00) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-05-29
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Footwear.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DECK Deckers Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CROX Crocs | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SHOO Steven Madden, Ltd. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
WWW Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | fair | elevated |
WEYS Weyco Group, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 33% of the last 6 guided quarters · -6.6% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims for high-single-digit revenue growth for fiscal year 2027.
Management aims to maintain a gross margin of approximately 57%.
Management targets an operating margin of approximately 22.5%.
Why it matters: Falling short of guidance would raise concerns about Deckers' growth momentum and brand strength.
Confirms:Q1 2027 revenue growth reported below 8% year over year.
Disproves:Q1 2027 revenue growth meets or exceeds 8% year over year.
Why it matters: A recovery would signal that the company can bounce back from challenges. This is key for future growth.
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows a profit, reversing the recent earnings miss.
Disproves:The Q2 earnings report may show another miss or big losses.
Why it matters: Operating margin is key for Deckers' cost management. A significant change could impact profits.
Confirms:Operating margin is at least 22.5%.
Disproves:The operating margin is less than 20%.
Why it matters: News about share buybacks shows how much management trusts the company's future.
Confirms:Share buybacks over $1 billion were announced for Q1 2027.
Disproves:No updates or a reduction in share repurchase plans in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Slow growth in international sales may show problems in global markets. This can affect overall results.
Confirms:International sales growth was below 20% year over year in Q1 2027.
Disproves:International sales growth meets or exceeds 20% year over year in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Retail sales data will indicate consumer spending trends. This impacts Deckers' sales outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales growth reported above 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales growth reported below -1% month over month.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin may mean higher costs or pressure on prices. This can hurt profits.
Confirms:Gross margin reported below 56.5% in Q1 2027.
Disproves:Gross margin remains at or above 56.5% in Q1 2027.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Such information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof, regard…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Such information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof, regard…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition.** On July 24, 2025, Deckers Outdoor Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended June 30, 2025, and providing its financial outlook for the fiscal quarter ending September 30, 2025. The Company intends to hold a conference call regarding these financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1.