NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Primary pillar broken — Maintain gross margin at approximately 57%: 56.4% vs ~57% target.
Deckers grows revenue about 9% a year. Profit margins stay near 57% gross and 22.5% operating. The company beats earnings estimates consistently. Free cash flow yield is solid at 7%.
Revenue growth could slow below high-single digits. Margins might compress from cost pressures. The sector faces headwinds that could hurt demand.
The price is about 25% below our fair value near $143. Analysts expect about 9% revenue growth, which aligns with management's high-single-digit target. Our fair value is 18% above the Street median.
Breaks if: gross margin falls below 54% (mid-cycle floor)
Sustain gross margin levels around 56.5% to 57% to support profitability and operational efficiency.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Gross margin was 57.7% in FY 2026 and guidance for FY 2027 is slightly better than 56.5%. Management has consistently targeted this range, and the actual margins have been stable, indicating delivery on this priority.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment is characterized as a durable compounder with a weakened current thesis state. The company has shown some recent positive earnings results but faces challenges in maintaining momentum.
The market currently prices DECK as cheap compared to its peers, with a negative expectations gap. This suggests that investors may be cautious about the company's fragile earnings quality and recent performance decline.
Management is focused on achieving high-single-digit revenue growth and maintaining stable gross and operating margins. However, the recent financial performance has shifted from the top half to the bottom half of its industry, indicating potential challenges ahead.
Key factors include management's ability to meet revenue and margin targets, as well as external influences like inflation and sector performance. If guidance is cut or inflation rises, it could negatively impact DECK's outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the outlook for high-single-digit revenue growth in FY 2027. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Gross margin is now expected to be slightly better than 56.5%.”
“Gross margin is expected to be approximately 56.5%.”
“Gross margin is now expected to be approximately 57%.”
“Gross margin is expected to be approximately 56%.”
Breaks if: operating margin falls below 20% (mid-cycle floor)
Maintain operating margin near 21.5% to ensure strong profitability and operational discipline.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating margin was approximately 23.1% in FY 2026 and guidance for FY 2027 is slightly better than 21.5%. Management has consistently emphasized this target, and the operating margin remains strong, showing delivery on this priority.
“Operating margin is now expected to be slightly better than 21.5%.”
“Operating margin is expected to be approximately 21.5%.”
“Operating margin is now expected to be approximately 22.5%.”
“Operating margin is expected to be approximately 21.5%.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below ~8.8% in FY 2027
Over the next 1 to 3 years, DECK's performance will depend on management execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.
