Deckers Brands (DECK)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$85.71-1.00%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Deckers Brands’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.32 → 8.34 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 18 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 18 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain gross margin at approximately 57%	A primary condition in Deckers Brands's published investment case. The stated target is ~57% gross margin.	Broken	gross margin falls below 54% (mid-cycle floor)	Gross margin: 56.41% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~57% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202656.414469 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d702bbc4-d6be-414e-9c0a-749fd9581eee. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Gross margin was 57.7% in FY 2026 and guidance for FY 2027 is slightly better than 56.5%. Management has consistently targeted this range, and the actual margins have been stable, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve operating margin of approximately 22.5%	A primary condition in Deckers Brands's published investment case. The stated target is ~22.5% operating margin.	Broken	operating margin falls below 20% (mid-cycle floor)	Operating margin: 15.23% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~22.5% operating margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202615.232592 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d702bbc4-d6be-414e-9c0a-749fd9581eee. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating margin was approximately 23.1% in FY 2026 and guidance for FY 2027 is slightly better than 21.5%. Management has consistently emphasized this target, and the operating margin remains strong, showing delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve high-single-digit revenue growth in FY 2027	A primary condition in Deckers Brands's published investment case. The stated target is >=8.8% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below ~8.8% in FY 2027	Revenue growth: 5.7% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=8.8% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20265.701486 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d702bbc4-d6be-414e-9c0a-749fd9581eee. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $4.986 billion in 2025 to $5.472 billion in 2026, with FY 2027 guidance targeting $5.86 billion to $5.91 billion. Management consistently emphasizes high-single-digit revenue growth, and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$8.34

$8.35 → $8.34 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$6.31B

$6.34B → $6.31B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.35	$6,341,499,191	17 / 18
2026-07-25	$8.38	$6,319,304,280	19 / 22
2026-07-26	$8.38	$6,319,304,280	19 / 22
2026-07-27	$8.39	$6,316,403,930	21 / 24
2026-07-28	$8.39	$6,316,403,930	21 / 24
2026-07-29	$8.34	$6,322,167,363	17 / 19
2026-07-30	$8.35	$6,322,167,363	17 / 19
2026-07-31	$8.35	$6,322,167,363	17 / 19
2026-08-01	$8.35	$6,322,167,363	17 / 19
2026-08-02	$8.36	$6,322,167,363	17 / 19
2026-08-03	$8.40	$6,316,403,930	21 / 24
2026-08-04	$8.40	$6,316,403,930	21 / 24
2026-08-05	$8.40	$6,316,403,930	21 / 24
2026-08-06	$8.36	$6,322,167,363	17 / 19
2026-08-07	$8.36	$6,322,167,363	17 / 19
2026-08-08	$8.40	$6,316,407,700	21 / 24
2026-08-09	$8.40	$6,316,407,700	21 / 24
2026-08-10	$8.40	$6,316,407,700	21 / 24
2026-08-11	$8.40	$6,316,407,700	21 / 24
2026-08-12	$8.40	$6,316,407,700	21 / 24
2026-08-13	$8.36	$6,322,167,363	17 / 19
2026-08-14	$8.36	$6,322,167,363	17 / 19
2026-08-15	$8.36	$6,322,167,363	17 / 19
2026-08-16	$8.36	$6,322,167,363	17 / 19
2026-08-17	$8.36	$6,322,167,363	17 / 19
2026-08-18	$8.36	$6,322,167,363	17 / 19
2026-08-19	$8.36	$6,322,167,363	17 / 19
2026-08-20	$8.36	$6,322,172,106	17 / 19
2026-08-21	$8.36	$6,322,172,106	17 / 19
2026-08-22	$8.36	$6,322,172,106	17 / 19
2026-08-23	$8.36	$6,322,172,106	17 / 19
2026-08-24	$8.36	$6,322,172,106	17 / 19
2026-08-25	$8.36	$6,322,172,106	17 / 19
2026-08-26	$8.36	$6,322,172,106	17 / 19
2026-08-27	$8.36	$6,322,172,106	17 / 19
2026-08-28	$8.36	$6,322,172,106	17 / 19
2026-08-29	$8.36	$6,322,172,106	17 / 19
2026-08-30	$8.36	$6,322,172,106	17 / 19
2026-08-31	$8.36	$6,322,172,106	17 / 19
2026-09-01	$8.36	$6,322,241,671	17 / 19
2026-09-02	$8.36	$6,322,241,671	17 / 19
2026-09-03	$8.36	$6,322,241,671	17 / 19
2026-09-04	$8.36	$6,322,241,671	17 / 19
2026-09-05	$8.36	$6,322,241,671	17 / 19
2026-09-06	$8.36	$6,322,241,671	17 / 19
2026-09-07	$8.36	$6,322,241,671	17 / 19
2026-09-08	$8.36	$6,322,241,671	17 / 19
2026-09-09	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	17 / 19
2026-09-10	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	17 / 19
2026-09-11	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	17 / 19
2026-09-12	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-09-13	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-09-14	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-09-15	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-09-16	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-09-17	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-09-18	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-09-19	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-09-20	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-09-21	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-09-22	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-09-23	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-09-24	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-09-25	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-09-26	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-09-27	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-09-28	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-09-29	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-09-30	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-10-01	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-10-02	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-10-03	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-10-04	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-10-05	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-10-06	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-10-07	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-10-08	$8.32	$6,308,468,856	18 / 19
2026-10-09	$8.34	$6,313,356,601	18 / 19
2026-10-10	$8.34	$6,313,356,601	18 / 19
2026-10-11	$8.34	$6,313,356,601	18 / 19
2026-10-12	$8.34	$6,313,356,601	18 / 19
2026-10-13	$8.34	$6,313,356,601	18 / 19
2026-10-14	$8.34	$6,313,356,601	18 / 19
2026-10-15	$8.34	$6,313,356,601	18 / 19

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	13	13	4
2026-06-01	11	13	2
2026-07-01	13	13	2
2026-08-01	13	11	2
2026-09-01	13	11	3
2026-10-01	13	11	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 15 · prior May 14

$145.00 → $140.00-3.4%

$0$79.75$159.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain gross margin at approximately 57%Published status: Broken
Achieve operating margin of approximately 22.5%Published status: Broken
Achieve high-single-digit revenue growth in FY 2027Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 22, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Deckers Brands outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue growth. The current thesis is cautious, given the mixed performance and external headwinds in the Consumer Discretionary sector.

What's priced into Deckers Brands

The market currently prices DECK as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a significant expectations gap. This suggests that investors are not fully factoring in the company's recent challenges and the potential for earnings fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve high-single-digit revenue growth, although gross and operating margins show mixed results. The near-term risk of missing earnings is low, but past performance raises caution.

What Deckers Brands hinges on

The thesis hinges on external factors such as inflation trends and the performance of sector leaders like NKE and CROX. Any guidance cuts or negative economic signals could significantly impact DECK's outlook.