Reading RCKY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RCKY free→Reading RCKY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RCKY free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFootwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared to sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $40.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $40 RCKY trades at 15× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $47 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.91x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.55 → $0.35 (-36.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$126.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$329.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,080.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if revenue trends are improving or worsening. This is key for Rocky Brands.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth turning positive year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue decline year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RCKY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On May 18, 2026, the Board of Directors of Rocky Brands, Inc. (the “Company”) authorized an increase of the Company’s quarterly dividend to $0.17 per share of outstanding common stock. The increased dividend will be payable on June 15, 2026 to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on June 1, 2026. On May 18, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the increase in quarterly cash dividend, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99 and incorpor…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Footwear.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RCKY Rocky Brands, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | fair | elevated |
DECK Deckers Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CROX Crocs | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SHOO Steven Madden, Ltd. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
WWW Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | fair | elevated |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to improve gross margins to the low 40% range as tariff impacts lessen.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross profit was $45.43M in 2026-Q1, down from $57.73M in 2025-Q4. Management's focus on improving margins to the low 40% range shows persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“provides a clear path back to gross margins in the low 40 percent range”
“raising prices and diversifying our sourcing will help to offset some of the impact from the higher tariffs”
Management is focused on capitalizing on growth opportunities in 2026 and beyond.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Revenue was $124.40M in 2026-Q1, down from $139.72M in 2025-Q4. Despite management's focus on growth opportunities, the revenue trajectory shows a decline, indicating limited progress so far.
“well positioned to capitalize on the growth opportunities we believe exist in 2026 and beyond”
The company has initiated a new 12-month share repurchase program of up to $7.5 million.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The company announced a share repurchase program of up to $7.5 million. As of 2026-Q1, there is no evidence of share buybacks executed, indicating the program is in its early stages with no substantive delivery yet.
“authorized a new 12-month share repurchase program of up to $7.5 million”
Why it matters: Retail sales data will indicate consumer spending trends. This affects Rocky Brands' sales outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows growth above 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows decline below -0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: The GDP report will show economic health. This impacts consumer spending and Rocky Brands' performance.
Confirms one read:GDP report shows growth above 2% for Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:GDP report shows growth below 1% for Q1 2026.
and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of such section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. The information contained or incorporated by referen…
and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of such section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. The information contained or incorporated by reference in this Form 8-K contains certain forward-loo…
Other Events On February 23, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company authorized a new 12-month share repurchase program of up to $7,500,000 of the Company's common stock (the "Repurchase Program") beginning February 24, 2026. Repurchases under the Repurchase Program will be made in open market or privately negotiated transactions in compliance with the Securities and Exchange Commission Rule 10b-18, subject to market conditions, applicable legal requirements, and other relevant factors. T…
and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of such section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. The information contained or incorporated by referen…