Reading PYPL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PYPL free→Reading PYPL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PYPL free→NASDAQFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 41% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The stock's performance hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how major players like Visa and Mastercard perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $42.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $42 PYPL trades at 8× p/e, below its 14× p/e peer median. Our $75 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $44–$54. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 43% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.26x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.29 → $1.28 (-0.7% / 30d). 2 raised, 28 cut, 34 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 18% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$134.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$343.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,992.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If GAAP EPS goes down, it shows ongoing problems. This could hurt investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 2026 GAAP EPS reported as a mid-single digit decline from $1.29.
Disproves:Q2 2026 GAAP EPS shows stability or growth compared to $1.29.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Threatens: Strengthen execution in branded checkout
Rule changes may hinder branded checkout execution.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . (b) and (e) As previously announced on April 29, 2026, effective as of June 2, 2026, Diego Scotti will cease to serve as the EVP, General Manager, Consumer Group of the Company. In connection with Mr. Scotti’s departure, the Company and Mr. Scotti entered into a separation and release agreement on May 20, 2026, which provides that Mr. Scotti will…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$44.00 – $54.00 (median $50.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-12
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Transaction & Payment Processing Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PYPL PayPal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
V Visa Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | low |
MA Mastercard | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | low |
XYZ Block, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | fair | elevated |
FISV Fiserv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
18 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 3.9% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on improving execution and accelerating growth through strategic investments.
Improve execution in branded checkout to enhance customer experience and drive growth.
Focus on enhancing innovation to drive better results across the business.
Invest in growth initiatives to drive diversified and profitable growth.
Why it matters: The new operating model aims to make decisions faster and help growth. This could affect how investors feel.
Confirms:Management shares clear goals for growth from the new operating model on July 28, 2026.
Disproves:Management does not share details or goals about the new operating model during the call.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can show management's confidence. They can also help support stock prices.
Confirms:Announcement of a new share buyback program or increase in existing buyback.
Disproves:No new buyback announcements or a reduction in the buyback program.
Why it matters: If active accounts stay the same or drop, it shows customer retention problems. This affects future income.
Confirms:Active accounts growth remains flat or declines from 439 million.
Disproves:Active accounts rise a lot above 439 million.
Why it matters: High single-digit growth in transaction margin dollars is an important goal. Success here shows good execution of growth plans.
Confirms:Transaction margin dollars grow at least 5% year over year in the next reporting period.
Disproves:Transaction margin dollars show growth below 5% year over year in the next reporting period.
Why it matters: Growth in the BNPL portfolio is crucial for PayPal's strategy in Europe. Positive updates could signal strong market performance.
Confirms:PayPal announces a big rise in BNPL loan originations in Europe in the next update.
Disproves:PayPal reports a drop in BNPL loan originations or problems in Europe in the next update.
Advances: Sharpen strategy and accelerate growth
Deepening embedded reach supports growth strategy.
of this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language contained in such filing. Financial Results for the Quarter Ended March 31, 2026 On May 5, 2026, PayPal Holdings, Inc. (“PayPal,” the “Company,” “we,” “us,” or “our”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 20…
Other Events Notes Offering On May 15, 2026, PayPal Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued and sold $2.0 billion aggregate principal amount of senior notes, consisting of $650,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 4.550% notes due 2028 (the “2028 Notes”), $850,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 4.950% notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”) and $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.550% notes due 2036 (the “2036 Notes” and, together with the 2028 Notes and the 2031 Notes, the “Notes”). The…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 29, 2026, PayPal Holdings, Inc. (the “ Company ”) announced that, effective as of June 2, 2026, Michelle Gill will cease to serve as the EVP, General Manager, Small Business and Financial Services of the Company and Diego Scotti will cease to serve as the EVP, General Manager, Consumer Group of the Company. In connection with Ms. Gill’s de…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Alyssa H. Henry to the Board of Directors On March 25, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of PayPal Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Alyssa H. Henry as a new member of the Company’s Board, effective March 25, 2026. Ms. Henry is the former Chief Executive Officer of Block Inc. (formerly Square, Inc.). Ms. Henry fills a…