PayPal (PYPL)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$56.70-0.80%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge PayPal’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.79 → 5.78 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 27 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 27 to 27; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve execution in branded checkout	A supporting condition in PayPal's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain or grow branded checkout revenue share.	Intact	Branded checkout revenue share declines significantly next year	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Payment transactions grew 8% year-over-year to 6.8 billion in 2026-Q2, and active accounts increased slightly to 439 million. Management highlights stabilization and momentum in branded checkout and Venmo, with financials showing modest growth consistent with this focus. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EPS at least $5.31 in FY26	A primary condition in PayPal's published investment case. The stated target is >= $5.31 EPS.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $5.0 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.25 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.31 EPS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20261.25 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: eb0b0edf-0b58-435f-85fe-31145e46d3c5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Drive innovation via stablecoin and AI	A supporting condition in PayPal's published investment case. The stated target is Successful rollout and adoption of stablecoin PYUSD and AI tools.	Intact	Stablecoin or AI initiatives fail to gain traction within a year	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to at least $34.3B in FY26	A primary condition in PayPal's published investment case. The stated target is >= $34.3B total revenue.	Under Pressure	Total revenue falls below $32B in FY26	Revenue: $8.682B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $34.3B total revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20268,682,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: eb0b0edf-0b58-435f-85fe-31145e46d3c5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.78

$5.75 → $5.78 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$36.25B

$35.80B → $36.25B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.75	$35,797,323,530	42 / 42
2026-07-25	$5.74	$35,763,693,936	27 / 32
2026-07-26	$5.75	$35,797,166,390	42 / 42
2026-07-27	$5.75	$35,785,285,440	42 / 42
2026-07-28	$5.75	$35,785,285,440	42 / 42
2026-07-29	$5.75	$35,981,991,379	27 / 32
2026-07-30	$5.78	$36,067,163,285	27 / 32
2026-07-31	$5.79	$36,127,334,790	42 / 41
2026-08-01	$5.78	$36,079,188,285	26 / 31
2026-08-02	$5.79	$36,136,390,890	42 / 41
2026-08-03	$5.78	$36,079,188,285	26 / 31
2026-08-04	$5.79	$36,136,390,890	42 / 41
2026-08-05	$5.78	$36,079,188,285	26 / 31
2026-08-06	$5.78	$36,079,188,285	26 / 31
2026-08-07	$5.78	$36,145,521,057	26 / 31
2026-08-08	$5.79	$36,183,543,200	42 / 42
2026-08-09	$5.78	$36,145,521,057	26 / 31
2026-08-10	$5.78	$36,145,521,057	26 / 31
2026-08-12	$5.78	$36,145,521,057	26 / 31
2026-08-13	$5.78	$36,145,521,057	26 / 31
2026-08-14	$5.78	$36,145,521,057	26 / 31
2026-08-15	$5.78	$36,145,521,057	26 / 31
2026-08-16	$5.78	$36,145,521,057	26 / 31
2026-08-17	$5.78	$36,145,521,057	26 / 31
2026-08-18	$5.78	$36,145,521,057	26 / 31
2026-08-19	$5.78	$36,145,521,057	26 / 31
2026-08-20	$5.78	$36,207,166,608	27 / 31
2026-08-21	$5.78	$36,227,993,538	27 / 31
2026-08-22	$5.78	$36,227,994,469	27 / 31
2026-08-23	$5.78	$36,227,994,469	27 / 31
2026-08-24	$5.78	$36,227,994,469	27 / 31
2026-08-25	$5.78	$36,227,994,469	27 / 31
2026-08-26	$5.78	$36,229,789,341	27 / 31
2026-08-27	$5.78	$36,229,789,341	27 / 31
2026-08-28	$5.78	$36,229,789,341	27 / 31
2026-08-29	$5.79	$36,266,633,863	27 / 32
2026-08-30	$5.79	$36,266,633,863	27 / 32
2026-08-31	$5.79	$36,266,633,863	27 / 32
2026-09-01	$5.79	$36,266,633,863	27 / 32
2026-09-02	$5.79	$36,266,633,863	27 / 31
2026-09-03	$5.79	$36,266,633,863	27 / 31
2026-09-04	$5.79	$36,266,633,863	27 / 31
2026-09-05	$5.79	$36,265,097,773	27 / 31
2026-09-06	$5.79	$36,265,097,773	27 / 31
2026-09-07	$5.79	$36,265,097,773	27 / 31
2026-09-08	$5.79	$36,265,097,773	27 / 31
2026-09-09	$5.79	$36,265,097,773	27 / 31
2026-09-10	$5.79	$36,265,097,773	27 / 31
2026-09-11	$5.79	$36,265,097,773	27 / 31
2026-09-12	$5.79	$36,265,097,773	27 / 31
2026-09-13	$5.79	$36,265,097,773	27 / 31
2026-09-14	$5.79	$36,265,097,773	27 / 31
2026-09-15	$5.79	$36,267,932,668	27 / 31
2026-09-16	$5.79	$36,267,932,668	27 / 31
2026-09-17	$5.79	$36,267,932,668	27 / 31
2026-09-18	$5.79	$36,267,932,668	27 / 31
2026-09-19	$5.79	$36,267,932,668	27 / 31
2026-09-20	$5.79	$36,267,932,668	27 / 31
2026-09-21	$5.79	$36,267,932,668	27 / 31
2026-09-22	$5.79	$36,267,932,668	27 / 31
2026-09-23	$5.79	$36,267,932,668	27 / 31
2026-09-24	$5.79	$36,267,932,668	27 / 31
2026-09-25	$5.79	$36,267,932,668	27 / 31
2026-09-26	$5.79	$36,268,301,089	27 / 31
2026-09-27	$5.79	$36,268,301,089	27 / 31
2026-09-28	$5.79	$36,268,301,089	27 / 31
2026-09-29	$5.79	$36,268,301,089	27 / 31
2026-09-30	$5.79	$36,268,301,089	27 / 31
2026-10-01	$5.79	$36,268,301,089	27 / 31
2026-10-02	$5.79	$36,268,301,089	27 / 31
2026-10-03	$5.79	$36,268,301,089	27 / 31
2026-10-04	$5.79	$36,268,301,089	27 / 31
2026-10-05	$5.79	$36,268,301,089	27 / 31
2026-10-06	$5.79	$36,268,313,399	27 / 31
2026-10-07	$5.78	$36,268,313,399	27 / 30
2026-10-08	$5.78	$36,268,313,399	27 / 30
2026-10-09	$5.78	$36,268,366,031	27 / 30
2026-10-10	$5.78	$36,268,366,031	27 / 30
2026-10-11	$5.78	$36,268,365,076	27 / 30
2026-10-12	$5.78	$36,268,363,903	27 / 30
2026-10-13	$5.78	$36,256,942,849	26 / 30
2026-10-14	$5.78	$36,253,279,699	27 / 30
2026-10-15	$5.78	$36,248,806,015	27 / 30

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	32	4
2026-06-01	8	32	4
2026-07-01	9	32	5
2026-08-01	8	33	3
2026-09-01	7	33	3
2026-10-01	7	33	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 33 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 9 · prior Jul 29

$57.00 → $56.00-1.8%

Deutsche BankSep 25 · prior Jul 29

$45.00 → $55.00+22.2%

$0$31.35$62.70

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve execution in branded checkoutQualitative condition
EPS at least $5.31 in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Drive innovation via stablecoin and AIQualitative condition
Revenue grows to at least $34.3B in FY26Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-46.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

PayPal outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving execution and growth strategies. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has not met industry standards, but management is actively working on transformation plans.

What's priced into PayPal

The market currently prices PayPal as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting an expectations gap. There is a low level of fragility in the stock, suggesting that the market does not foresee immediate threats to its stability.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show mixed results in the near term. While revenue has grown and management is focused on returning capital to shareholders, operating income has slightly declined, indicating challenges in profitability improvements.

What PayPal hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to execute its transformation plan and the performance of sector leaders like Visa and Mastercard. Additionally, any changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policy could impact PayPal's performance.