Reading FIS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FIS free→Reading FIS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FIS free→NYSEFinancialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the current environment. Peer multiples imply a price about 50% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, particularly related to the performance of the bellwether JKHY. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $39.51. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $39 FIS trades at 7× p/e, below its 14× p/e peer median. Our $78 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $45–$70. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 50% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.07x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.47 → $1.47 (-0.0% / 30d). 5 raised, 15 cut, 22 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 62% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.1% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$136.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$337.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,245.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'favorable' to 'mild_favorable'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Falling revenue growth may show weak demand or more competition. This raises worries about future performance.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted revenue growth was below 30%.
Disproves:Q2 Adjusted revenue growth reported at 30% or higher.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FIS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 8, 2026, Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026, and guidance for the quarter ending June 30, 2026, and full year ending December 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information included in this Item 2.02, including the accompanying exhibits,…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$45.00 – $70.00 (median $57.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-28
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Transaction & Payment Processing Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FIS Fidelity National Information Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
V Visa Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | low |
MA Mastercard | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | low |
XYZ Block, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | full | elevated |
PYPL PayPal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
17 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 6 guided quarters · 194.7% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
FIS aims to achieve Adjusted EPS growth of 8-10% for the fiscal year 2026.
FIS projects Adjusted revenue growth of 30-31% for the fiscal year 2026.
FIS targets Free Cash Flow of $2.05 - $2.15 billion for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Closing this deal will show if FIS can enhance its market position and financial profile.
Confirms:Global Payments' Issuer Solutions business will close as planned in the first half of 2026.
Disproves:The acquisition may face big regulatory delays or may not close at all.
Why it matters: Reaching this target is important for FIS's investments. It affects returns for shareholders.
Confirms:FIS reports Free Cash Flow within the target range in upcoming earnings.
Disproves:Free Cash Flow falls below $2.05 billion, indicating financial strain.
Why it matters: This acquisition is important for FIS's growth. It could greatly increase revenue.
Confirms:The acquisition will close successfully. It will add over $125 million to FIS's revenue each year.
Disproves:The acquisition faces delays or fails to close, impacting growth plans.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This affects FIS's performance.
Confirms:FIS reports revenue growth below the median of 15% in upcoming quarters.
Disproves:Revenue growth is still above the median. This shows ongoing strength.
Why it matters: Hitting the $2.05 - $2.15 billion target shows strong cash flow and stability.
Confirms:Free Cash Flow reaches or exceeds $2.15 billion for 2026.
Disproves:Free Cash Flow falls below $2.05 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could indicate broader economic challenges. This may affect FIS's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends will show if FIS can keep its market position during challenges.
Confirms one read:Revenue growth exceeds 31% year over year in Q2 2026.
Confirms the other:Revenue growth drops below 30% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This is a key indicator of FIS's financial health and ability to meet growth targets.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS growth of 8-10% for Q2 2026 is achieved.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS growth falls below 8% for Q2 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 30, 2026, Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (the “Company”) was notified by Mark Benjamin, a member of the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”), of his decision not to stand for re-election at the Company’s 2026 annual meeting of shareholders (the “2026 Shareholder Meeting”). Mr. Benjamin’s decision was not due to any disa…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 18, 2026, Firdaus Bhathena, the Chief Product Technology Officer of Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (the “Company”), notified the Company of his decision to resign effective March 20, 2026. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on…
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. Closing of USD Notes Offering On March 10, 2026, Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (“FIS”) completed the issuance and sale of its previously announced offering of U.S. dollar-denominated senior notes, consisting of $2,000,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of 4.450% Senior Notes due 2028 (the “2028 Fixed Rate Notes”), $2,300,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of 4.550% Senior Notes due 2029 (the “2029 Fixed Rate Notes”), $500,000,00…
Other Events. Underwriting Agreement Relating to USD Senior Notes On March 4, 2026, Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (“FIS”) entered into an Underwriting Agreement (the “USD Underwriting Agreement”) with Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Citigroup Global Markets Inc., J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and TD Securities (USA) LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters named therein, providing for the issuance and sale of $2,000,000,000 in aggregate principal a…