Fidelity National Information Services (FIS)

NYSEFinancialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$36.01-0.33%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Fidelity National Information Services’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.70 → 6.67 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 18 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 18 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

5 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Reduce gross leverage to 2.8x within 18 months post-acquisition	A supporting condition in Fidelity National Information Services's published investment case. The stated target is gross leverage ratio 2.8x.	Intact	Gross leverage remains above 3.5x after 18 months	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management has communicated a target gross leverage of approximately 2.8x, down from pro forma 3.4x post-acquisition. Share repurchases and tuck-in M&A are paused to accelerate deleveraging. The trajectory shows active focus on deleveraging with plans to resume capital return once target is met. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Grow dividend per share in line with adjusted EPS growth	Earnings per share rise 8-10%.	Intact	Dividend per share growth falls below 4% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management has consistently targeted dividend per share growth aligned with Adjusted EPS growth, approving increases of 10-11% recently. Dividends per share rose from $0.40 in 2025-Q3 to $0.44 in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows consistent dividend growth in line with earnings. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve adjusted EPS growth of 8-10% in 2026	A primary condition in Fidelity National Information Services's published investment case. The stated target is EPS $6.22-$6.32.	Under Pressure	Adjusted EPS falls below $5.75 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EPS grew from $5.75 in 2025 to a projected $6.15-$6.32 in 2026, reflecting 7-10% growth guidance. Adjusted EPS increased 8.8% in Q2 2026 year-over-year. The trajectory is delivering consistent EPS growth aligned with management's stated targets. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Generate free cash flow of $2.05-$2.15 billion in 2026	Free cash flow hits $2.1 billion.	Under Pressure	Free cash flow falls below $1.5 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $238M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $2.05-$2.15 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026238,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Free Cash Flow increased 220% year-over-year in Q2 2026 to $525 million. The Company raised its full-year 2026 Free Cash Flow target by $100 million to $2.15-$2.25 billion, reflecting growth of 33-39%. The trajectory is delivering strong cash flow growth consistent with management's stated targets. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve adjusted revenue growth of 30-31% in 2026	A primary condition in Fidelity National Information Services's published investment case. The stated target is 30-31% YoY growth.	Under Pressure	Adjusted revenue growth falls below 17% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management updated and reiterated full-year 2026 Adjusted revenue growth guidance at 29-31%. Revenue grew from $10.7B in 2025 to a projected $13.63-$13.70B in 2026, reflecting strong growth including acquisition impact. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with management's stated targets. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.67

$6.85 → $6.67 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$14.26B

$14.43B → $14.26B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.85	$14,426,260,953	16 / 18
2026-07-25	$6.85	$14,437,600,750	27 / 24
2026-07-26	$6.85	$14,437,600,750	27 / 24
2026-07-27	$6.85	$14,419,814,001	16 / 18
2026-07-28	$6.85	$14,419,814,001	16 / 18
2026-07-29	$6.85	$14,436,809,080	27 / 24
2026-07-30	$6.85	$14,419,814,001	16 / 19
2026-07-31	$6.85	$14,436,799,980	27 / 24
2026-08-01	$6.85	$14,419,814,001	16 / 19
2026-08-02	$6.85	$14,419,814,001	16 / 19
2026-08-03	$6.85	$14,419,814,001	16 / 19
2026-08-04	$6.85	$14,436,799,980	27 / 24
2026-08-05	$6.85	$14,436,799,980	27 / 24
2026-08-06	$6.85	$14,436,799,980	27 / 24
2026-08-07	$6.73	$14,259,873,421	16 / 18
2026-08-08	$6.71	$14,283,826,250	27 / 23
2026-08-09	$6.71	$14,283,826,250	27 / 23
2026-08-10	$6.71	$14,283,826,250	27 / 23
2026-08-11	$6.73	$14,259,873,421	16 / 18
2026-08-12	$6.70	$14,269,094,040	28 / 24
2026-08-13	$6.73	$14,259,873,421	16 / 18
2026-08-14	$6.73	$14,259,873,421	16 / 18
2026-08-15	$6.73	$14,259,873,421	16 / 18
2026-08-16	$6.73	$14,259,873,421	16 / 18
2026-08-17	$6.73	$14,259,873,421	16 / 18
2026-08-18	$6.73	$14,259,873,421	16 / 18
2026-08-19	$6.73	$14,259,873,421	16 / 18
2026-08-20	$6.71	$14,266,055,910	17 / 19
2026-08-21	$6.70	$14,260,014,243	17 / 19
2026-08-22	$6.70	$14,260,042,264	17 / 19
2026-08-23	$6.70	$14,260,042,264	17 / 19
2026-08-24	$6.70	$14,260,042,264	17 / 19
2026-08-25	$6.70	$14,260,042,264	17 / 19
2026-08-26	$6.70	$14,259,372,327	17 / 19
2026-08-27	$6.70	$14,259,372,327	17 / 19
2026-08-28	$6.70	$14,259,372,327	17 / 19
2026-08-29	$6.70	$14,259,372,327	17 / 19
2026-08-30	$6.70	$14,259,372,327	17 / 19
2026-08-31	$6.70	$14,259,372,327	17 / 19
2026-09-01	$6.70	$14,259,372,327	17 / 19
2026-09-02	$6.70	$14,259,372,327	17 / 19
2026-09-03	$6.70	$14,259,372,327	17 / 19
2026-09-04	$6.70	$14,259,372,327	17 / 19
2026-09-05	$6.70	$14,259,372,327	17 / 19
2026-09-06	$6.70	$14,259,372,327	17 / 19
2026-09-07	$6.70	$14,259,372,327	17 / 19
2026-09-08	$6.70	$14,259,372,327	17 / 19
2026-09-09	$6.70	$14,259,372,327	17 / 19
2026-09-10	$6.70	$14,259,372,327	17 / 19
2026-09-11	$6.70	$14,259,372,327	17 / 19
2026-09-12	$6.70	$14,259,837,434	18 / 20
2026-09-13	$6.70	$14,259,837,434	18 / 20
2026-09-14	$6.70	$14,259,837,434	18 / 20
2026-09-15	$6.70	$14,259,837,434	18 / 20
2026-09-16	$6.70	$14,259,837,434	18 / 20
2026-09-17	$6.70	$14,259,837,434	19 / 21
2026-09-18	$6.70	$14,259,837,434	19 / 21
2026-09-19	$6.70	$14,259,837,434	19 / 21
2026-09-20	$6.70	$14,259,837,434	19 / 21
2026-09-21	$6.70	$14,259,837,434	19 / 21
2026-09-22	$6.70	$14,259,837,434	19 / 21
2026-09-23	$6.70	$14,259,837,434	19 / 21
2026-09-24	$6.70	$14,259,837,434	19 / 21
2026-09-25	$6.70	$14,260,277,434	19 / 20
2026-09-26	$6.70	$14,260,277,434	19 / 21
2026-09-27	$6.70	$14,260,277,434	19 / 21
2026-09-28	$6.70	$14,260,277,434	19 / 21
2026-09-29	$6.70	$14,258,357,434	19 / 21
2026-09-30	$6.70	$14,258,357,434	19 / 21
2026-10-01	$6.70	$14,258,357,434	19 / 21
2026-10-02	$6.70	$14,258,357,434	19 / 21
2026-10-03	$6.70	$14,258,357,434	19 / 21
2026-10-04	$6.70	$14,258,357,434	19 / 21
2026-10-05	$6.70	$14,258,357,434	19 / 21
2026-10-06	$6.70	$14,258,357,434	19 / 21
2026-10-07	$6.69	$14,258,357,434	18 / 20
2026-10-08	$6.69	$14,258,357,434	18 / 20
2026-10-09	$6.68	$14,258,357,434	18 / 20
2026-10-10	$6.68	$14,258,357,434	18 / 20
2026-10-11	$6.68	$14,258,357,434	18 / 20
2026-10-12	$6.68	$14,258,357,434	18 / 20
2026-10-13	$6.68	$14,258,357,434	18 / 20
2026-10-14	$6.67	$14,256,177,350	18 / 20
2026-10-15	$6.67	$14,256,177,350	18 / 20

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	16	9	1
2026-06-01	16	9	1
2026-07-01	15	11	1
2026-08-01	15	14	1
2026-09-01	13	15	1
2026-10-01	14	15	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

SusquehannaOct 13

$37.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 13 · prior May 11

$57.00 → $44.00-22.8%

BarclaysOct 9 · prior Aug 5

$43.00 → $38.00-11.6%

Deutsche BankSep 29

$40.00New observation · no comparable prior

Robert W. BairdSep 25 · prior Aug 4

$48.00 → $45.00-6.3%

$0$31.35$62.70

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Reduce gross leverage to 2.8x within 18 months post-acquisitionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Grow dividend per share in line with adjusted EPS growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve adjusted EPS growth of 8-10% in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Generate free cash flow of $2.05-$2.15 billion in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Achieve adjusted revenue growth of 30-31% in 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-51.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Fidelity National Information Services outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround opportunity within the Financials sector. The current thesis state is cautious, as the company faces elevated risks while maintaining a focus on growth targets.

What's priced into Fidelity National Information Services

The market currently prices FIS as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a valuation that suggests some expectations of future challenges. There is a notable expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully account for potential risks in the near term.

What the fundamentals likely do

FIS is on track to meet its management priorities for revenue and earnings growth, with strong performance in free cash flow as well. However, the recent change in risk from moderate to elevated suggests that the company must navigate potential headwinds carefully.

What Fidelity National Information Services hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on FIS's ability to maintain its growth trajectory while managing risks associated with sector performance and potential guidance cuts. Additionally, the performance of sector peers will be critical in influencing FIS's outlook.