Reading FISV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FISV free→Reading FISV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FISV free→NASDAQFinancialsSoftwareSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 58% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact FISV's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $49.83. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $48 FISV trades at 6× p/e, below its 14× p/e peer median. Our $118 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $46–$91. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 60% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.88x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
23 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.94 → $1.93 (-0.5% / 30d). 3 raised, 23 cut, 29 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 24% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -0.2% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$140.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$322.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,271.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This would indicate that Fiserv is struggling to meet its growth targets. It could signal deeper issues in its business segments.
Confirms:Q2 organic revenue growth was less than 1%.
Disproves:Q2 organic revenue growth was more than 1%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
New CEO could align with growth objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Resignation of Chief Executive Officer and Director On June 12, 2026, Michael P. Lyons resigned as Chief Executive Officer of Fiserv, Inc. (the “Company”) and as a member of the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”), effective immediately. Mr. Lyons’s resignation was not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter relati…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$46.00 – $91.00 (median $65.00) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-06-05
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Transaction & Payment Processing Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FISV Fiserv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
V Visa Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | low |
MA Mastercard | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | low |
XYZ Block, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | fair | elevated |
PYPL PayPal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Fiserv aims for organic revenue growth between 1% and 3% for the year 2026.
Fiserv targets adjusted earnings per share between $8.00 and $8.30 for 2026.
Fiserv is advancing the One Fiserv transformation program to enhance operational efficiency.
Why it matters: A larger decline would indicate ongoing challenges in Fiserv's business segments. This could raise concerns about its market position.
Confirms:Q2 GAAP revenue decline worse than -2%.
Disproves:GAAP revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: This would signal that Fiserv is struggling to maintain profitability. It would raise concerns about future earnings.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS for 2026 is reported below $8.00.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS for 2026 is reported at $8.00 or higher.
Why it matters: This event will provide insights into Fiserv's strategy and growth plans. Key announcements could impact investor sentiment.
Confirms one read:Good news or guidance at Investor Day can make investors feel more confident.
Confirms the other:No new plans or bad comments can make people worry about future results.
Why it matters: A lower EPS would indicate that Fiserv is not achieving its profit goals. This could hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS was less than $8.00.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS reported at or above $8.00.
Why it matters: Progress updates will show if Fiserv can improve its operations and client focus. This is key for future growth.
Confirms one read:Management says they reached important goals in the One Fiserv plan.
Confirms the other:No updates or negative comments on the One Fiserv plan's progress.
Leadership issues could hinder growth objectives.
CEO exit raises concerns about future guidance.
CEO departure raises concerns about strategic direction.
Activist pressure may disrupt management focus.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 16, 2026, Fiserv, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that it commenced an offer (the “Tender Offer”) to purchase for cash any and all of its outstanding (i) 5.150% Senior Notes due 2027 (the “5.150% Notes”) and (ii) 4.400% Senior Notes due 2049 (the “4.400% Notes” and, together with the 5.150% Notes, the “Notes”), as described in the Company’s Offer to Purchase, dated June 16, 2026 (the “Offer to Purchase”). Consummation of the Tender Offer and payment for the No…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K) 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. FISERV, INC. Date: May 5, 2026 By: /s/ Paul M. Todd Paul M. Todd Chief Financial Officer
of this Current Report on Form 8-K) 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. FISERV, INC. Date: February 10, 2026 By: /s/ Paul M. Todd Paul M. Todd Chief Financial Officer
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Appointment of Co-Presidents On October 29, 2025, the Company announced that Dhivya Suryadevara was appointed Co-President, Head of Financial Solutions, Global Operations, and Chief Revenue Officer of the Company and that Takis Georgakopoulos was appointed Co-President, Head of Merchant and Technology of the Company, in each case, effective December…