Fiserv (FISV)

NASDAQFinancialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$47.55+0.72%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Fiserv’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.96 → 7.93 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 22 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 21 to 22; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effective capital allocation including share buybacks	A supporting condition in Fiserv's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or increase share buybacks and manage debt prudently.	Under Pressure	Capital allocation deteriorates with increased debt or halted buybacks	€1B debt issued vs maintain buybacks Fiserv issued €1B in senior notes in June 2026, increasing debt load while facing activist pressure for cost cuts. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS of $8.15 for FY26	The company guides EPS around $8.15 for 2026.	Broken	EPS falls below $8.0 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.17 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $8.0 and $8.3. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20261.17 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 437027ec-5c55-4662-bd58-232d4352bd6a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Progress on One Fiserv transformation program	A supporting condition in Fiserv's published investment case. The stated target is Sustained operational improvements and cost efficiencies.	Under Pressure	Transformation program stalls or reverses progress	Qualitative: Guidance cut & execution delays vs sustained improvements News reports guidance cuts and execution delays in Q2, while activist Jana pushes for accelerated cost cuts. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Organic revenue growth of 1% to 3% for 2026	Fiserv aims for organic revenue growth of 1% to 3% in 2026.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 1% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.93

$8.94 → $7.93 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$20.22B

$20.86B → $20.22B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.94	$20,855,212,440	36 / 27
2026-07-25	$8.94	$20,855,212,440	36 / 27
2026-07-26	$8.94	$20,851,645,770	36 / 27
2026-07-27	$8.93	$20,853,836,990	37 / 28
2026-07-28	$8.93	$20,853,836,990	37 / 28
2026-07-29	$8.93	$20,853,836,990	37 / 28
2026-07-30	$8.92	$20,845,303,289	22 / 21
2026-07-31	$8.93	$20,853,836,990	37 / 28
2026-08-01	$8.92	$20,845,253,912	22 / 21
2026-08-02	$8.92	$20,845,253,912	22 / 21
2026-08-03	$8.93	$20,853,836,990	37 / 28
2026-08-04	$8.93	$20,853,836,990	37 / 28
2026-08-05	$8.93	$20,853,836,990	37 / 28
2026-08-06	$8.92	$20,845,266,615	22 / 21
2026-08-07	$8.92	$20,845,267,245	21 / 21
2026-08-08	$8.50	$20,536,802,800	36 / 27
2026-08-09	$8.50	$20,536,802,800	36 / 27
2026-08-10	$8.50	$20,536,802,800	36 / 27
2026-08-11	$8.92	$20,845,267,245	21 / 21
2026-08-12	$8.25	$20,354,250,240	37 / 29
2026-08-13	$8.92	$20,845,267,245	21 / 21
2026-08-14	$8.92	$20,845,267,245	21 / 21
2026-08-15	$8.92	$20,845,267,245	22 / 22
2026-08-16	$8.92	$20,845,267,245	22 / 22
2026-08-17	$8.92	$20,845,267,245	22 / 22
2026-08-18	$8.92	$20,845,267,245	22 / 22
2026-08-19	$8.92	$20,845,267,245	22 / 22
2026-08-20	$8.09	$20,331,846,545	22 / 22
2026-08-21	$8.05	$20,305,432,752	22 / 22
2026-08-22	$8.05	$20,276,436,189	22 / 22
2026-08-23	$8.05	$20,276,436,189	22 / 22
2026-08-24	$8.05	$20,276,436,189	22 / 22
2026-08-25	$8.05	$20,276,436,189	22 / 22
2026-08-26	$8.04	$20,271,288,182	22 / 22
2026-08-27	$8.04	$20,271,288,182	22 / 22
2026-08-28	$8.04	$20,271,288,182	22 / 22
2026-08-29	$8.01	$20,273,158,956	22 / 22
2026-08-30	$8.00	$20,271,623,241	22 / 22
2026-08-31	$8.00	$20,271,623,241	22 / 22
2026-09-01	$8.00	$20,271,623,241	22 / 22
2026-09-02	$8.00	$20,271,623,241	22 / 22
2026-09-03	$7.99	$20,264,737,527	22 / 22
2026-09-04	$7.99	$20,264,737,527	22 / 22
2026-09-05	$7.96	$20,233,246,324	21 / 22
2026-09-06	$7.96	$20,233,246,324	21 / 22
2026-09-07	$7.96	$20,233,246,324	21 / 22
2026-09-08	$7.96	$20,233,246,324	21 / 22
2026-09-09	$7.96	$20,233,246,324	21 / 22
2026-09-10	$7.96	$20,240,594,670	21 / 22
2026-09-11	$7.96	$20,245,712,095	21 / 22
2026-09-12	$7.96	$20,245,712,095	21 / 22
2026-09-13	$7.96	$20,245,712,095	21 / 22
2026-09-14	$7.96	$20,245,712,095	21 / 22
2026-09-15	$7.96	$20,245,712,095	21 / 22
2026-09-16	$7.96	$20,245,712,095	21 / 22
2026-09-17	$7.96	$20,231,416,098	22 / 22
2026-09-18	$7.96	$20,231,416,098	22 / 22
2026-09-19	$7.96	$20,231,416,098	22 / 22
2026-09-20	$7.96	$20,228,978,790	22 / 22
2026-09-21	$7.96	$20,228,978,790	22 / 22
2026-09-22	$7.96	$20,228,978,790	21 / 22
2026-09-23	$7.95	$20,226,121,647	21 / 22
2026-09-24	$7.95	$20,226,121,647	21 / 22
2026-09-25	$7.95	$20,224,300,218	21 / 22
2026-09-26	$7.95	$20,224,300,218	21 / 22
2026-09-27	$7.95	$20,224,300,218	21 / 22
2026-09-28	$7.95	$20,224,300,218	21 / 22
2026-09-29	$7.95	$20,221,703,659	21 / 22
2026-09-30	$7.95	$20,221,703,659	22 / 22
2026-10-01	$7.95	$20,221,703,659	22 / 22
2026-10-02	$7.95	$20,221,703,659	22 / 22
2026-10-03	$7.95	$20,221,703,659	22 / 22
2026-10-04	$7.95	$20,221,703,659	22 / 22
2026-10-05	$7.95	$20,221,703,659	22 / 22
2026-10-06	$7.95	$20,221,703,659	22 / 22
2026-10-07	$7.94	$20,221,703,659	22 / 22
2026-10-08	$7.94	$20,221,703,659	22 / 22
2026-10-09	$7.93	$20,216,014,004	22 / 22
2026-10-10	$7.93	$20,216,014,004	22 / 22
2026-10-11	$7.93	$20,216,000,211	22 / 22
2026-10-12	$7.93	$20,216,000,211	22 / 22
2026-10-13	$7.93	$20,216,000,211	22 / 22
2026-10-14	$7.93	$20,215,344,511	22 / 22
2026-10-15	$7.93	$20,215,344,511	22 / 22

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	26	1
2026-06-01	9	26	2
2026-07-01	9	25	2
2026-08-01	9	26	2
2026-09-01	9	26	2
2026-10-01	7	27	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 27 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 9 · prior Aug 7

$52.00 → $50.00-3.8%

$0$28.60$57.20

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Effective capital allocation including share buybacksPublished status: Under Pressure
EPS of $8.15 for FY26Published status: Broken
Progress on One Fiserv transformation programPublished status: Under Pressure
Organic revenue growth of 1% to 3% for 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-64.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Fiserv outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on operational improvements and organic growth. However, the current thesis state indicates management has struggled to meet its targets, leading to a cautious outlook.

What's priced into Fiserv

The market currently prices FISV as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a valuation that suggests limited growth expectations. There is a notable expectations gap, indicating that investors may anticipate challenges ahead.

What the fundamentals likely do

FISV's fundamentals are expected to remain under pressure due to management's recent guidance cuts and the overall financial performance, which has not kept pace with industry peers. The risk of missing future earnings remains low, but the company has a history of consecutive misses, adding to the uncertainty.

What Fiserv hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute the One Fiserv transformation program and achieve organic revenue growth. Additionally, external factors such as interest rate changes and performance of sector peers will significantly influence FISV's trajectory.