Reading PRCH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PRCH free→Reading PRCH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PRCH free→NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, though it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, while compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 105% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.50. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $10 PRCH trades at 3× p/s — 1.8× the 1× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $5.17 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 103% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 96%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted -5.50x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.02 → $-0.02 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$257.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$634.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,639.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better gross profit guidance shows improved cost management. This can help make more money.
Confirms:Management raises gross profit guidance for 2026. This is above current levels.
Disproves:Management keeps gross profit guidance flat or lowers it for 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PRCH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 10, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), Porticus Reinsurance Ltd. (“Porticus”), a Cayman Islands captive reinsurance company and subsidiary of Porch Group, Inc. (the “Company” or “Porch”), entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “SPA”) with the Porch Reciprocal Exchange, a Texas unincorporated reciprocal inter-insurance exchange (the “Reciprocal”). The parties entered into the SPA following the receipt of required regulatory approvals fro…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PRCH Porch Group, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | high |
CB Chubb Limited | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | full | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Porch Group aims to increase its revenue guidance for the full year 2026 to $495m-$507m.
Porch Group has raised its gross profit guidance for 2026 to $401m-$413m.
Porch Group has raised its adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 to $103m-$109m.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance signals stronger growth expectations. This could boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Management raises revenue guidance for 2026. This is higher than what was expected.
Disproves:Management keeps or lowers revenue guidance for 2026.
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities The information set forth in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026 , Porch Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued an earnings release announcing financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026 . The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026 , Porch Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued an earnings release announcing financial results for its fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025 . The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2025 , Porch Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued an earnings release announcing financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2025 . The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.