Reading PRA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PRA free→Reading PRA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PRA free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.66. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $25 the market pays 14× p/e — above the 11× p/e peer median but in line with its own 19× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $25 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.54x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.28 → $0.32 (+14.2% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$24.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$43.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $376.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below 12% could signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Confirms:ProAssurance reports revenue growth below 12% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays at or above 12% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PRA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
OTHER EVENTS. As previously disclosed, on March 19, 2025, ProAssurance entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with The Doctors Company, a California-domiciled reciprocal inter-insurance exchange, and Jackson Acquisition Corporation, a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of The Doctors Company (“Merger Sub”), pursuant to which, on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth in the Merger Agreement, Merger Sub will merge with and into ProAssur…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PRA ProAssurance Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CB Chubb Limited | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -71.2% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management expects to finalize the merger transaction by the end of June 2026.
Management aimed to achieve an EPS of $0.99 for the fiscal year 2025.
Why it matters: A big drop shows problems in the medical liability market.
Confirms:Q2 net premiums written drop more than 5% compared to Q2 2025.
Disproves:Q2 net premiums written stabilize or grow year over year.
Why it matters: Closing the merger is key for ProAssurance's growth strategy. It could boost their market position.
Confirms:The merger will close by June 30, 2026. It needs all regulatory approvals.
Disproves:The merger fails to close by the deadline or faces significant delays.
Why it matters: A lower combined ratio means better performance and more profit.
Confirms:The combined ratio for Q2 falls below 105%.
Disproves:The combined ratio remains above 110% in Q2.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can show a weak economy. This can lower the demand for insurance.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims stay below 250,000.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS target is key for ProAssurance's growth. It helps build investor trust.
Confirms:ProAssurance reports EPS of $0.99 or higher for fiscal year 2025.
Disproves:EPS falls below $0.99 for fiscal year 2025.
Why it matters: Litigation can hurt ProAssurance's finances. It may also change how investors feel.
Confirms:The stock price drops a lot after news of the litigation on June 2, 2026.
Disproves:Stock price remains stable or increases despite the litigation news.
RESULTS OF OPERATION AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On May 5, 2026 we issued a news release reporting the results of our operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The text of the release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
RESULTS OF OPERATION AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On February 23, 2026 we issued a news release reporting the results of our operations for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The text of the release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.