Reading PED? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PED free→Reading PED? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PED free→AMEXEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If PED cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $12.10. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $12 PED trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $6.09 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 99% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 66%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.43x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
18 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated volatile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=252).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.14 → $0.35 (+153.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$322.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$750.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,997.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation changed. It rose from "expensive" to "full." Risk remained high. The sector backdrop is a headwind.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better sector performance can help PEDEVCO and other companies. This may change stock prices.
Confirms:Sector performance gets better. It moves from a negative score to neutral or positive.
Disproves:Sector performance gets worse. It has a deeper negative score.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PED yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Third Amendment to Amended and Restated Credit Agreement On May 19, 2026 (the “Third Amendment Effective Date”), PEDEVCO Corp., a Texas corporation (the “Company”), entered into a Third Amendment to Credit Agreement (the “Third Amendment”) with Citibank, N.A., as administrative agent (the “Administrative Agent”), each of the guarantors party thereto, and each of the lenders party thereto. The Third Amendment amends that certain Amended and Restated…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PED PEDEVCO Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | expensive | high |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve $60 to $70 million in Adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently guided for $60-$70M Adjusted EBITDA for FY 2026. However, net income has been negative in recent quarters, with a net loss of $25.6M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards this target.
“we are confident we will meet or exceed our full-year guidance of ... $60 to $70 million of Adjusted EBITDA.”
“Full-year 2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA of $60 million to $70 million.”
“Pro forma Adjusted EBITDA $60MM - $70MM FY 2026 Forecast.”
Management plans to maintain capital expenditures between $16 million and $20 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management has set a CAPEX target of $16-$20M for FY 2026. The financials do not provide specific CAPEX figures for 2026-Q1, making it difficult to assess progress. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“based on $16 to $20 million of net capital expenditures.”
Management aims to improve operating income, which was positive in 2026-Q1 after several negative quarters.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Operating income improved significantly from a loss of $4.9M in 2025-Q4 to a gain of $6.7M in 2026-Q1. This indicates a positive trajectory in cost management and operational efficiency.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it could signal a positive shift in the energy sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth over three years is more than 2%. This will show in upcoming earnings.
Disproves:Three-year revenue growth remains at or below 2%.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 14, 2026, PEDEVCO Corp. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, will not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “E…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth above in
in its entirety. The Second Amendment, among other amendments set forth therein, (i) amends the definition of “EBITDAX” to (A) update the cap on permitted transaction cost add-backs to EBITDAX for any acquisition or disposition of the Company’s oil and gas properties which form the collateral for the agreement, to the greater of $6,000,000 or five percent (5%) of the then-current borrowing base (currently $120 million), and (B) add back an estimated EBITDAX for the month of October 2025 attri…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth above in
“Full-year 2026 guidance for net capital expenditures of $16 million to $20 million.”
“Operating income was $6.7M in 2026-Q1, a significant improvement from previous quarters.”