PEDEVCO Corp (PED)

AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$14.93+1.01%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge PEDEVCO Corp’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	30.45M
EPS	—	0.139
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	142.8M
EPS	—	0.223
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	141.2M
EPS	—	1.192

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve $60-$70M Adjusted EBITDA for FY 2026	PEDEVCO aims for $60-$70M adjusted EBITDA in 2026.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $60M in FY 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew from $21.5 million in 2026-Q1 to $18.7 million in 2026-Q2, totaling $40.2 million in first half 2026. Management reiterated full-year 2026 guidance of $60-$70 million Adjusted EBITDA. The trajectory is delivering with strong growth from the expanded asset base. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain CAPEX between $16M and $20M in FY 2026	A supporting condition in PEDEVCO Corp's published investment case. The stated target is $16M to $20M.	Intact	CAPEX exceeds $20M or falls below $16M in FY 2026	Capital expenditures: $3.532M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $16M to $20M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 20263,532,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management guided full-year 2026 net capital expenditures between $16 million and $20 million. Actual capital expenditures were $16.5 million in 2026-Q1, consistent with guidance. The trajectory is delivering with disciplined capital deployment supporting development plans. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income positive and improving	Operating income improved to $6.7M in Q1 2026.	Intact	Operating income falls below $0 in any quarter after Q1 2026	Operating income: $15.358M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $6.7M in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 13, 202615,358,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b154f662-93ce-44e3-9139-3b96ac9206a0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue near $45.5M for FY 2026	A primary condition in PEDEVCO Corp's published investment case. The stated target is ~$45.5M.	Intact	Revenue falls below $45M in FY 2026	Revenue: $46.113M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$45.5M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 202646,113,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b154f662-93ce-44e3-9139-3b96ac9206a0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew from $21.5 million in 2026-Q1 to $18.7 million in 2026-Q2, totaling $40.2 million in first half 2026. Management reiterated full-year 2026 guidance of $60-$70 million Adjusted EBITDA. The trajectory is delivering with strong growth from the expanded asset base. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	0	0
2026-06-01	1	0	0
2026-07-01	1	0	0
2026-08-01	1	0	0
2026-09-01	1	0	0
2026-10-01	1	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve $60-$70M Adjusted EBITDA for FY 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain CAPEX between $16M and $20M in FY 2026Capital expenditures: $3.532M
Operating income positive and improvingOperating income: $15.358M
Revenue near $45.5M for FY 2026Revenue: $46.113M

Next proof point

Nov 13, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-44.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

PEDEVCO Corp outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PED is a high-risk, energy-sector growth story rather than an established, profitable compounder. Its multi-year view is intact, with production growth supporting the case, while earnings quality remains weak and management execution has been volatile.

What's priced into PEDEVCO Corp

The evidence describes PED’s valuation as carrying a durable premium to peers, while the expectations gap is close to neutral. The premium is viewed as justified, but confidence in that assessment is low; the recent valuation measure also fell. The evidence does not provide enough detail to describe the valuation as cheap, fair, or expensive overall.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term, management has reiterated its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA goal of $60 million to $70 million, after reporting $40.2 million for the first half. Production has grown sharply year over year, and management plans to participate in more than 20 wells to support output in late 2026 and 2027. Risks include the recent earnings miss, litigation, a CEO transition, and the possibility of a guidance cut; the evidence also flags erratic earnings results.

What PEDEVCO Corp hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued production growth and delivery against the 2026 EBITDA goal while capital spending stays disciplined. In the near term, a guidance cut would weaken the setup, while continued strong earnings and higher guidance from energy-sector peers could sustain a favorable sector backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support.