Reading OTTR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OTTR free→Reading OTTR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OTTR free→NASDAQUtilitiesConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, and management is volatile. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Compared with sector peers, OTTR is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If OTTR cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $88.76. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $89 OTTR trades at 13× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $113 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 22% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1203).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.49x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated fragile grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.53 → $1.50 (-2.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$82.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$204.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,270.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance shows trust in financial performance. It comforts investors about earnings.
Confirms:Management confirms EPS guidance remains within the range of $5.22 to $5.62 during Q2 earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers EPS guidance below $5.22. This shows possible earnings problems.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OTTR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously reported, in 2024, putative federal class action lawsuits alleging violations of the antitrust laws were filed against Otter Tail Corporation and two subsidiaries (together, the “Company”), along with more than twenty other PVC pipe manufacturers. The actions were later consolidated as In re: PVC Pipe Antitrust Litigation (Case No. 1:24-cv-07639) in the United States District Court for the Northern District of Illinois (the “PVC Pipe A…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electric Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OTTR Otter Tail Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SO Southern Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | low |
DUK Duke Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | low |
CEG Constellation Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | full | elevated |
AEP American Electric Power | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | full | low |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Utilities names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to anticipate 2026 diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $5.22 to $5.62.
Continue to increase the dividend per share as part of capital allocation strategy.
Focus on increasing operating income as part of growth strategy.
Why it matters: The outcome of this lawsuit could impact Otter Tail's financial health and reputation. Investors need to know how serious the claims are.
Confirms:Any court ruling or settlement that hurts Otter Tail's finances.
Disproves:A ruling in favor of Otter Tail or a dismissal of the case.
Why it matters: The result of this case could greatly affect finances and reputation. It is a big risk.
Confirms:A good ruling in the PVC Pipe Antitrust case lowers financial risks.
Disproves:A bad ruling in the PVC Pipe Antitrust case raises financial risks.
Why it matters: Approval of the Minnesota rate case is crucial for revenue growth. It impacts the utility's financial health.
Confirms:Minnesota rate case gets approved. New base rates are now in place.
Disproves:Delay or rejection of the Minnesota rate case may hurt revenue growth.
Why it matters: Raising the dividend shows financial strength. It shows a commitment to shareholders.
Confirms:Announcement of an increase in the quarterly dividend per share.
Disproves:No increase or a cut in the dividend shows possible financial trouble.
Why it matters: The utilities sector is growing up. Faster revenue growth could help Otter Tail.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up again, reaching over 5%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth slows down or stays below 5%.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. As previously reported in a Form 8-K filed by Otter Tail Corporation on March 23, 2026 (the “March 8-K”), Otter Tail Power Company ("OTP”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Otter Tail Corporation, entered into a Note Purchase Agreement (the “Note Purchase Agreement”) on March 19, 2026, with the purchasers named therein (the “Purchasers”), pursuant to which OTP agreed to issue to the…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 4, 2026 Otter Tail Corporation issued a press release announcing its consolidated financial results for the first quarter of 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Sec…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of President of Otter Tail Corporation On April 13, 2026, the Board of Directors of Otter Tail Corporation (Otter Tail or the Company) elected Tim Rogelstad as President of the Company. Mr. Rogelstad, age 59, previously served as President of Otter Tail Power Company, the Company’s electric utility, and Senior Vice President, Electric P…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On March 19, 2026, Otter Tail Power Company (the “Company”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Otter Tail Corporation (“OTC”), entered into a Note Purchase Agreement (the “Note Purchase Agreement”) with the purchasers named therein (the “Purchasers”), pursuant to which the Company issued to the Purchasers, in a private placement transaction, $170,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s senior unsecured notes consisting of $100,000,000 in aggre…