Reading OGN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OGN free→Reading OGN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OGN free→NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 67% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on whether OGN cuts guidance on the next call, which could negatively impact estimates. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.42. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $13 OGN trades at 4× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $40 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $8.00–$14. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 66% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.46x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.94 → $0.92 (-1.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$82.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$423.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,795.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Management rose by 12.2 points (from 70.5 to 82.7).
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The merger is key for Organon's future growth and financial stability. It could reshape its market position.
Confirms:The merger closes successfully. All approvals are in by early 2027.
Disproves:The merger fails to close. This is due to regulatory issues or stockholder disapproval.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OGN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The stockholders of Organon & Co. (the “ Company ”) approved an amendment and restatement of the Organon & Co. 2021 Incentive Stock Plan (the “ Amended and Restated 2021 ISP ”) at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting held on June 9, 2026 (the “ Annual Meeting ”). The Company’s Board of Directors (the “ Board ”), upon the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$8.00 – $14.00 (median $12.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-04-27
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OGN Organon & Co. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | low |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the acquisition of Sun Pharmaceutical Holdings USA to enhance growth.
Ensure stable cash flow from operating activities to support financial health.
Focus on enhancing net income through operational efficiencies and strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Maintaining strong cash flow is key for funding operations and future growth.
Confirms:Cash from operations is expected to be over $200M next quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations drops below $200M.
Why it matters: Maintaining strong cash from operations is key for funding growth and acquisitions.
Confirms:Operating cash flow remains at or above $100 million for Q2.
Disproves:Operating cash flow drops below $80 million for Q2.
Why it matters: Finishing this deal could help growth. It may also add to Organon's products.
Confirms:An official announcement will confirm the deal is done.
Disproves:A notice about delays or problems could stop the deal from closing.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows good cost management. This helps during tough times.
Confirms:Net income for Q2 shows a year-over-year increase from the previous quarter.
Disproves:Net income for Q2 declines year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in net income shows that the company is making more money and working well.
Confirms:Net income reported above $150M in the next quarter.
Disproves:Net income falls below $140M.
Why it matters: A larger decline shows worse trends in key products. This is especially true for Women's Health.
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported down year over year worse than 9%.
Disproves:Q2 revenue stabilizes or shows growth year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Organon & Co. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release (the “ Earnings Release ”) regarding its results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Earnings Release is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is considered to be “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934…
from, the Company’s definitive proxy statement for its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “ SEC ”) on April 24, 2026 (the “ 2026 Annual Meeting Proxy Statement ”). No changes were made to Mr. Morrissey’s compensation or benefits in connection with the appointment to Chief Executive Officer of the Company on a permanent basis. Appointment of Executive Chair As previously disclosed in a Current Report on Form 8-K filed by the Company…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 26, 2026, Organon & Co. (the “ Company ”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Sun Pharmaceutical Holdings USA, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Parent ”), Sun Pharma America, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of Parent and/or its affiliates (“ Merger Sub ”) and, solely for the purposes of certain covered provisions of the Merger Agreement, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited,…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On April 26, 2026, the Company and Parent issued a joint press release announcing the entry into the Merger Agreement. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is considered to be “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act, or otherwise subject to the liab…