Organon & Co. (OGN)

NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-10-23

$13.750.00%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Organon & Co.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.54B
EPS	—	0.92
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	6.14B
EPS	—	3.35
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	6.36B
EPS	—	3.63

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operating activities grows to at least $225 million in 2026-Q1	Organon is growing cash from operations, up $150 million in one year.	Intact	cash from operating activities falls below $225 million in 2026-Q1	Cash from operations: $107M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=225000000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 2026107,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $264M in 2025-Q3, $141M in 2025-Q4, and $225M in 2026-Q1, showing sustained positive cash flow. Management emphasizes maintaining operational performance and financial flexibility, indicating delivery on this priority with some quarter-to-quarter variability. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Gross margin holds near 31% in FY2025	A supporting condition in Organon & Co.'s published investment case. The stated target is 31%.	Intact	gross margin falls below 31% in FY2025	Gross margin: 54.36% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 31%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 202654.36457 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 710f0205-d35a-4469-8037-5419ada432ed. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income improves to at least $146 million in 2026-Q1	Net income rose $59 million in the same period.	Broken	net income falls below $146 million in 2026-Q1	Net income: $108M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=146000000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 2026108,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 710f0205-d35a-4469-8037-5419ada432ed. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue remains near $6.2 billion in FY2026	A primary condition in Organon & Co.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=6200000000 USD.	Intact	revenue falls below $6.2 billion in FY2026	Revenue: $1.558B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6200000000 USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20261,558,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 710f0205-d35a-4469-8037-5419ada432ed. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$3.64 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$6.24B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.64	$6,236,190,100	6 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-26	$3.64	$6,236,190,100	6 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-28	$3.64	$6,236,190,100	6 / 5
2026-07-29	$3.64	$6,236,190,100	6 / 5
2026-07-30	$3.64	$6,236,190,100	6 / 5
2026-07-31	$3.64	$6,236,190,100	6 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-02	$3.64	$6,236,190,100	6 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-08	$3.64	$6,236,190,100	6 / 5
2026-08-09	$3.64	$6,236,190,100	6 / 5
2026-08-10	$3.64	$6,236,190,100	6 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	1
2026-06-01	4	1
2026-07-01	4	1
2026-08-01	4	1
2026-09-01	4	1
2026-10-01	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operating activities grows to at least $225 million in 2026-Q1Cash from operations: $107M
Gross margin holds near 31% in FY2025Gross margin: 54.36%
Net income improves to at least $146 million in 2026-Q1Published status: Broken
Revenue remains near $6.2 billion in FY2026Revenue: $1.558B

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Organon & Co. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk, value-oriented business with a multi-year view tied to improving profitability and completing a strategic merger. The thesis is currently intact, though management execution and earnings quality remain mixed.

What's priced into Organon & Co.

OGN is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are already cautious. The pricing assessment is marked justified, with low fragility rather than a mix of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent financial performance is strong and net income has improved, but adjusted EBITDA margin has narrowed and earnings misses remain a concern. Operating cash flow has stayed positive with quarter-to-quarter variation, while completion of the Sun Pharmaceutical Holdings USA merger is expected in early 2027, subject to approvals.

What Organon & Co. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends in part on completing the merger and improving profitability without further margin pressure. Near term, a guidance cut or continued weakening in jobs data could add pressure, while strong results and guidance from large healthcare companies could support the sector backdrop.