Reading NOG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NOG free→Reading NOG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NOG free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, its earnings yield is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 45% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because recent financials are weak and earnings quality is fragile. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $19.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $20 NOG trades at 5× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $32 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $28–$36. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 37% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -28%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated weak grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.28x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.97. 3 raised, 2 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 2 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 39.2% above current price.
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$180.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$483.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,509.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Falling revenue might show bigger problems in how the company runs and market conditions.
Confirms:Revenue for Q2 drops below $5.0M, continuing the trend from Q1.
Disproves:Revenue for Q2 stabilizes or grows from the $5.0M reported in Q1.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NOG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On the Closing Date, pursuant to the PSA, the Company entered into a registration rights agreement (the “Registration Rights Agreement”) with Seller pursuant to which the Company has agreed to prepare and file with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) a shelf registration statement, or a prospectus supplement to an existing registration statement, on Form S-3ASR, covering the resale of the Stock Consideration no later than the later to…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$28.00 – $36.00 (median $30.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NOG Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to maintain a dividend payout of $0.45 per share as part of capital allocation strategy.
Continue focusing on capital allocation through strategic asset purchases.
Focus on managing financial stability in the face of declining revenue.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows good management of new assets. It also means financial stability.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations reported above $323.6 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations reported below $297.2 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend matters. It helps build trust with investors. It also shows good financial health.
Confirms:Management will confirm a dividend payout of $0.45 per share soon.
Disproves:Management cuts the dividend payout to below $0.45 per share. This shows financial trouble.
Why it matters: Updates will show how well NOG is doing in Canada.
Confirms one read:NOG reports production from the Duvernay assets exceeding 4,000 Boe per day.
Confirms the other:NOG reports production from the Duvernay assets falling below 3,500 Boe per day.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It shows a promise to return money to shareholders.
Confirms:NOG confirms the dividend payout of $0.45 per share in the next earnings announcement.
Disproves:NOG announces a reduction or suspension of the dividend payout.
Why it matters: An update could signal how well NOG is managing its new acquisitions and production levels.
Confirms:NOG raises its production guidance for Q2 2026 above 148,000 Boe per day.
Disproves:NOG lowers its production guidance for Q2 2026 below 143,000 Boe per day.
Why it matters: Successful asset purchases can boost financial health and growth.
Confirms:There is news of completed asset purchases that can increase revenue.
Disproves:No asset purchases have been announced. This shows issues with capital use.
Why it matters: Recovering revenue growth is key for the company's long-term health and dividend.
Confirms one read:Revenue growth is above 6% from last year. This shows the sector is recovering.
Confirms the other:Revenue growth is below 6%. This suggests ongoing problems in the sector.
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 22, 2026, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into an asset purchase and sale agreement (the “PSA”) among Parallax Energy Operating Inc., a corporation existing under the laws of the Province of Alberta (“Seller”), NOG Energy Canada, Ltd., a corporation existing under the laws of the Province of Alberta and a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (“Purchaser”), and, for certain limited purposes, the Co…
Other Events. On June 2, 2026, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), filed a prospectus supplement (the “Resale Prospectus Supplement”) to the prospectus contained in its effective Registration Statement on Form S-3ASR (File No. 333-296399) covering the resale of up to 3,689,413 shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.001 per share (“Common Stock”), which may be used by the selling stockholder identified therein to resell shares of Common Stock receive…
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The description set forth under “Introductory Note” above of the issuance of the Stock Consideration pursuant to the PSA and the terms thereof is incorporated herein by reference. The Stock Consideration was issued in reliance on the exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, pursuant to Section 4(a)(2) thereof. The information contained in this Report is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer…
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The description set forth under