Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$28.26+3.67%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+15.5% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.86 → 4.46 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	647.63M
EPS	—	1.175
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.42B
EPS	—	4.269
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.47B
EPS	—	4.459

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Focus on capital allocation through asset purchases	A primary condition in Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain strategic asset purchases in 2026.	Intact	Company stops or reverses asset purchases	Qualitative: Asset purchases maintained (Parallax acquisition completed Jun 2026) NOG completed Parallax Energy acquisition in June 2026 and raised 2026 output guidance, reinforcing capital allocation strategy. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain dividend payout of $0.45 per share	The company pays a steady $0.45 dividend per share.	Intact	Dividend payout falls below $0.45 per share	Dividend per share: $0.45 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $0.45 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260.45 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 723320f4-d8e9-479b-be5b-61526af645af. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow at least $30 million in 2026	Free cash flow should be at least $30M in 2026.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $30 million in 2026	Free cash flow: $-58.194M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $30.36 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026-58,194,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue at or above $950M in 2025 and $143B in 2026	A primary condition in Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $950 million in 2025 and >= $143 billion in 2026.	Broken	Revenue falls below $950 million in 2025 or $143 billion in 2026	Revenue: $745.235M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $950 million in 2025 and >= $143 billion in 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026745,235,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 723320f4-d8e9-479b-be5b-61526af645af. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.46

$4.27 → $4.46 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.47B

$2.37B → $2.47B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.27	$2,365,875,420	7 / 5
2026-07-25	$3.51	$2,246,629,850	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$4.27	$2,365,875,420	7 / 5
2026-07-27	$4.27	$2,365,875,420	7 / 5
2026-07-28	$4.27	$2,365,875,420	7 / 5
2026-07-29	$4.27	$2,365,875,420	7 / 5
2026-07-30	$4.27	$2,365,875,420	7 / 5
2026-07-31	$4.27	$2,365,875,420	7 / 5
2026-08-01	$3.58	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-02	$4.27	$2,365,875,420	7 / 5
2026-08-03	$3.58	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-04	$3.58	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-05	$4.27	$2,365,875,420	7 / 5
2026-08-06	$3.58	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-07	$3.58	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-08	$4.27	$2,365,875,420	7 / 5
2026-08-09	$4.27	$2,365,875,420	7 / 5
2026-08-10	$4.27	$2,365,875,420	7 / 5
2026-08-12	$4.29	$2,367,675,420	7 / 5
2026-08-13	$3.58	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-14	$3.58	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-15	$3.58	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-16	$3.58	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-17	$3.58	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-18	$3.58	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-19	$3.58	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-20	$3.64	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-21	$3.76	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-22	$3.75	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-23	$3.75	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-24	$3.75	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-25	$3.75	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-26	$3.75	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-27	$3.75	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-28	$3.75	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-29	$3.78	$2,287,930,940	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$3.78	$2,287,930,940	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$3.78	$2,287,930,940	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$3.78	$2,287,930,940	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$3.78	$2,286,180,940	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$3.78	$2,286,180,940	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$3.78	$2,286,180,940	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$3.78	$2,286,180,940	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$3.78	$2,286,180,940	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$3.78	$2,286,180,940	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$3.78	$2,286,180,940	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$3.78	$2,286,180,940	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$3.78	$2,286,180,940	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$3.86	$2,302,749,815	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$3.86	$2,302,749,815	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$3.86	$2,302,749,815	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$3.86	$2,302,749,815	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$3.86	$2,302,749,815	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$3.86	$2,302,749,815	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$3.86	$2,302,749,815	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$3.86	$2,302,749,815	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$3.86	$2,302,749,815	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$3.86	$2,302,749,815	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$3.86	$2,302,749,815	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$3.86	$2,302,749,815	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$3.86	$2,302,749,815	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$3.86	$2,302,749,815	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$3.86	$2,302,749,815	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$3.86	$2,302,749,815	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$3.86	$2,302,749,815	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$3.86	$2,302,749,815	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$3.86	$2,302,749,815	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$3.90	$2,310,374,815	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$3.90	$2,310,374,815	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$3.90	$2,310,374,815	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$3.90	$2,310,374,815	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$3.98	$2,310,374,815	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$3.98	$2,310,374,815	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$4.01	$2,323,499,815	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$4.01	$2,323,499,815	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$4.01	$2,323,499,815	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$4.01	$2,323,499,815	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$4.17	$2,323,499,815	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$4.17	$2,323,499,815	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$4.17	$2,323,499,815	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$4.19	$2,323,499,815	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$4.19	$2,323,499,815	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$4.28	$2,391,063,035	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$4.48	$2,440,320,195	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$4.48	$2,440,320,195	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$4.46	$2,469,809,586	6 / 6
2026-10-19	$4.46	$2,469,809,586	6 / 6
2026-10-20	$4.46	$2,469,809,586	6 / 6
2026-10-21	$4.46	$2,469,809,586	6 / 6
2026-10-22	$4.46	$2,469,809,586	6 / 6
2026-10-23	$4.46	$2,469,788,176	6 / 6
2026-10-24	$4.46	$2,469,809,586	6 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	4	1
2026-06-01	4	4	1
2026-07-01	4	4	1
2026-08-01	4	4	1
2026-09-01	4	4	1
2026-10-01	4	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

ScotiabankOct 14

$27.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$14.85$29.70

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend payout of $0.45 per shareDividend per share: $0.45 per share
Free cash flow at least $30 million in 2026Free cash flow: $-58.194M
Revenue at or above $950M in 2025 and $143B in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an energy producer with acquisition-led growth, not a steady compounder: results depend on execution and the sector backdrop. The multi-year view is watch, with medium confidence, because recent financial performance is weak relative to peers despite progress on stated priorities.

What's priced into Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

The valuation evidence says NOG is cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The snapshot labels pricing as justified, with low fragility: turbulent sector conditions are a concern, but the full combination of expensive valuation, weak results, and turbulence is not present.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management has delivered production and spending within its 2026 guidance, completed acquisitions, and continued dividends and share repurchases. Recent performance remains weak, management is rated volatile, and the company has missed in recent quarters, so a guidance cut on the next call is a meaningful risk even though the current miss-risk tier is quiet.

What Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on maintaining production and capital-spending guidance while integrating the expanded asset base. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the case, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as COP, EOG, and OXY could sustain the sector tailwind; misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove it.