Reading MVST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MVST free→Reading MVST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MVST free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.25. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.29 MVST trades at 1× p/s — 1.7× the 1× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $1.07 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 20% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.07x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.00. 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$371.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$863.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,234.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can impact consumer spending and borrowing. A rate hike may slow down sales.
Confirms:FOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points or more.
Disproves:FOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MVST yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 27, 2026, Eric N. Garcia ceased to be employed as Chief Accounting Officer of Microvast Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”).
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MVST Microvast Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | high |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on sustaining operational efficiencies and premium product positioning to maintain a resilient gross margin profile.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross profit was $19.16M in 2026-Q1, down from $46.41M in 2025-Q3. Despite the commitment to maintain margins, the financials show a decline, indicating limited progress.
“We are targeting and committed to maintaining a resilient gross margin profile.”
“We are targeting maintaining a strong gross margin position.”
Anticipate recovery in delivery schedules and a steady revenue ramp through 2026 as production aligns with demand.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue was $60.61M in 2026-Q1, down from $96.40M in 2025-Q4. Despite the anticipation of recovery and ramp, the financials show a decline, indicating limited progress so far.
Expect continued revenue growth in 2026 as part of strategic expansion.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Revenue was $96.40M in 2025-Q4, but declined to $60.61M in 2026-Q1. The expectation of growth is not yet reflected in the financials, indicating a need for further progress.
“We expect continued revenue growth in 2026.”
Why it matters: Retail sales data can affect consumer demand for Microvast's products. A strong report may signal better sales ahead.
Confirms:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects overall economic health. Positive growth may boost consumer confidence and spending.
Confirms:GDP growth is reported above 2% for the 1st Quarter.
Disproves:GDP growth is reported below 1% for the 1st Quarter.
by reference. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in s…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 16, 2026, Microvast Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing its consolidated financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release and the slideshow is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and 99.2, respectively to this Current Report on Form 8-K and each is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the accompanying Exhibit 99…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of New Chief Accounting Officer On January 5, 2025, the Company entered into an offer of employment with Eric N. Garcia, pursuant to which Mr. Garcia will serve as the Company’s Chief Accounting Officer (the “CAO Offer Letter”). Mr. Garcia is expected to commence employment with the Company on or about January 9, 2025. Mr. Garcia, age 4…
by reference. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in s…
“We anticipate a recovery in delivery schedules and a steady revenue ramp through the remainder of 2026.”