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Murphy Oil (MUR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$36.45-6.15%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 122% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how major players in the Energy sector perform. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas E&p
- Market cap
- $5.57B
- Employees
- 813
- IPO date
- 1994-03-29
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $36.45. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$16.40consensus
Range $13.55 – $29.00
vs price: +122% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$44.40consensus
Range $44.40 – $44.40
vs price: -18% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $36 MUR trades at 35× p/e — 2.9× the 12× p/e peer median, and above its own 15× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $16 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $36–$48. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
35.4x
peer 12.4x · own history 15.4x
Premium
2.9x peer
2.3x its own history
Growth the price needs
123%
our forecast -7%
Our fair value
$16.36
range $13.55 – $29.70
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 123% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
94th pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 15.07x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated robust grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 35% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
97th pctl · Energy
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to rise when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish13 analysts, 18% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.34 → $1.32 (-1.2% / 30d). 6 raised, 7 cut, 13 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 18% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.8% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in (~0.8 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$256.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$415.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,725.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for stable operating income in Q2 results.
Why it matters: Stability in operating income is crucial for Murphy Oil's growth plans. It shows how well costs are managed.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Operating income is stable or higher than last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income drops by more than 5% from last quarter.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-125d agoYahoo! Finance
Advances: Increase cash from operations
Analysts see cash flow boost from rising crude prices.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 3% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting MUR and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If MUR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit MUR and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If MUR cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping MUR and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-116d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On June 11, 2026, Murphy Oil Corporation (the “Company”) announced that E. Ted Botner, Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary, will retire from his position as Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary, effective immediately, and will retire from the Company on June 30, 2026. Roger W. Landes, the…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.