Murphy Oil (MUR)

Q: What's priced into Murphy Oil (MUR) stock?

Valuation appears broadly aligned with peers, with only a small expectations gap and medium confidence in the assessment. The market setup is described as justified rather than fragile, although a turbulent sector remains a source of risk.

Q: What does the Murphy Oil (MUR) outlook hinge on?

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on MUR sustaining production progress while keeping capital spending controlled. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it. A MUR guidance cut would be a separate negative signal.

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$44.34+4.65%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Murphy Oil’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+20.7% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.16 → 3.82 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	880.58M
EPS	—	1.348
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.32B
EPS	—	4.119
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.23B
EPS	—	3.82

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain capital expenditure at or below $1.3 billion	A supporting condition in Murphy Oil's published investment case. The stated target is <=1300 USD_MILLIONS.	Broken	CAPEX exceeds $1.3 billion in FY26	Capital expenditures: $455.64M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: <=1300 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026455,640,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Advance long-cycle projects like Côte d'Ivoire discoveries	New oil discoveries in Côte d'Ivoire support long-term growth.	Improving	no material progress or setbacks on long-cycle projects over next year	Qualitative: 3 strong discoveries/appraisals (Oct 2026) vs target of sustained progress Recent news highlights successful offshore discoveries and appraisal wells, strongly reinforcing the exploration and development objectives. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase net production to at least 174,000 BOEPD	Murphy Oil is growing production, reaching 174,000 BOEPD in Q1 2026.	Improving	production falls below 161,000 BOEPD next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 disclosures including 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. Total net production was 174,236 BOEPD in 2026-Q1 and 168,995 BOEPD in 2026-Q2, both near or above guidance ranges. First oil was achieved at Lac Da Vang in 2026-Q3, and the Chinook #8 well came online with a 15 MBOEPD initial rate. The trajectory shows delivery of production growth and successful conversion of exploration and development into production. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.82

$3.09 → $3.82 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.23B

$3.06B → $3.23B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.09	$3,057,564,282	8 / 5
2026-07-25	$3.09	$3,057,564,282	8 / 5
2026-07-26	$3.05	$3,118,514,190	13 / 6
2026-07-27	$3.05	$3,118,514,190	13 / 6
2026-07-28	$3.05	$3,118,514,190	13 / 6
2026-07-29	$3.09	$3,118,514,190	13 / 6
2026-07-30	$3.09	$3,118,514,190	13 / 6
2026-07-31	$3.09	$3,118,514,190	13 / 6
2026-08-01	$3.12	$3,063,268,646	8 / 5
2026-08-02	$3.09	$3,118,514,190	13 / 6
2026-08-03	$3.09	$3,118,514,190	13 / 6
2026-08-04	$3.09	$3,118,514,190	13 / 6
2026-08-05	$3.09	$3,118,514,190	13 / 6
2026-08-06	$3.12	$3,063,268,646	8 / 5
2026-08-07	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 5
2026-08-08	$3.05	$3,091,197,880	13 / 7
2026-08-09	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 5
2026-08-10	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 5
2026-08-12	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 5
2026-08-13	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 5
2026-08-14	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 5
2026-08-15	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 5
2026-08-16	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 6
2026-08-17	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 6
2026-08-18	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 6
2026-08-19	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 6
2026-08-20	$2.92	$3,084,667,823	9 / 6
2026-08-21	$2.94	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-08-22	$2.94	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-08-23	$2.94	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-08-24	$2.94	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-08-25	$2.95	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-08-26	$2.95	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-08-27	$2.95	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-08-28	$2.95	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-08-29	$2.95	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-08-30	$2.95	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-08-31	$2.95	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-09-01	$2.95	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-09-02	$2.95	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-09-03	$2.92	$3,078,538,888	9 / 6
2026-09-04	$2.98	$3,056,718,980	9 / 6
2026-09-05	$2.98	$3,056,718,980	9 / 6
2026-09-06	$3.23	$3,060,897,897	10 / 6
2026-09-07	$3.23	$3,060,897,897	10 / 6
2026-09-08	$3.04	$3,060,897,897	10 / 6
2026-09-09	$3.07	$3,060,897,897	10 / 6
2026-09-10	$3.07	$3,060,897,897	10 / 6
2026-09-11	$3.07	$3,060,939,564	10 / 6
2026-09-12	$3.07	$3,060,939,564	9 / 6
2026-09-13	$3.07	$3,060,939,564	9 / 6
2026-09-14	$3.07	$3,060,939,564	9 / 6
2026-09-15	$3.08	$3,071,680,379	9 / 6
2026-09-16	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-17	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-18	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-19	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-20	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-21	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-22	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-23	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-24	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-25	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-26	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-27	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-28	$3.20	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-29	$3.20	$3,092,263,712	9 / 6
2026-09-30	$3.20	$3,092,263,712	9 / 6
2026-10-01	$3.20	$3,092,263,712	9 / 6
2026-10-02	$3.20	$3,105,103,046	9 / 6
2026-10-03	$3.20	$3,106,144,621	9 / 6
2026-10-04	$3.27	$3,106,144,621	9 / 6
2026-10-05	$3.27	$3,106,144,621	9 / 6
2026-10-06	$3.27	$3,106,144,621	9 / 6
2026-10-07	$3.32	$3,118,561,287	9 / 6
2026-10-08	$3.32	$3,118,561,287	9 / 6
2026-10-09	$3.32	$3,118,561,287	9 / 6
2026-10-10	$3.32	$3,118,561,287	9 / 6
2026-10-11	$3.32	$3,118,561,287	9 / 6
2026-10-12	$3.32	$3,118,561,287	9 / 6
2026-10-13	$3.31	$3,118,561,287	9 / 6
2026-10-14	$3.31	$3,118,562,911	8 / 6
2026-10-15	$3.67	$3,179,311,827	8 / 6
2026-10-16	$3.70	$3,222,058,140	9 / 6
2026-10-17	$3.70	$3,222,058,140	9 / 6
2026-10-18	$3.68	$3,222,057,071	9 / 6
2026-10-19	$3.68	$3,222,057,071	9 / 7
2026-10-20	$3.74	$3,213,910,137	9 / 7
2026-10-21	$3.73	$3,211,510,780	9 / 7
2026-10-22	$3.73	$3,211,510,780	9 / 7
2026-10-23	$3.73	$3,211,511,773	9 / 7
2026-10-24	$3.82	$3,231,317,923	9 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	13	1
2026-06-01	3	13	1
2026-07-01	3	11	1
2026-08-01	3	11	2
2026-09-01	3	11	2
2026-10-01	3	12	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 17

$35.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSOct 14 · prior Aug 7

$38.00 → $40.00+5.3%

ScotiabankOct 14 · prior May 13

$44.00 → $41.00-6.8%

Wells FargoSep 29 · prior Sep 14

$42.00 → $43.00+2.4%

$0$24.20$48.40

2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain capital expenditure at or below $1.3 billionPublished status: Broken
Increase net production to at least 174,000 BOEPDDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Murphy Oil outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MUR is an energy producer with a cyclical business, meaning results can shift with the sector backdrop. Its long-term thesis is intact and recently moved from mixed to mildly favorable, though elevated risk and uneven execution across priorities remain important.

What's priced into Murphy Oil

Valuation appears broadly aligned with peers, with only a small expectations gap and medium confidence in the assessment. The market setup is described as justified rather than fragile, although a turbulent sector remains a source of risk.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results have been strong, and production in the first two quarters of 2026 was near or above guidance; new production also came online in the third quarter. Capital spending rose to support projects, while the production and exploration priorities show mixed progress. Earnings surprises have been erratic, so a guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful risk despite the low near-term miss assessment.

What Murphy Oil hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on MUR sustaining production progress while keeping capital spending controlled. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it. A MUR guidance cut would be a separate negative signal.

Bottom line

For the 1-to-3-year view, MUR has a supportive but cyclical setup, with strong recent results offset by elevated risk and mixed execution. The thesis remains intact, but depends on delivery and the energy sector backdrop. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	880.58M
EPS	—	1.348
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.32B
EPS	—	4.119
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.23B
EPS	—	3.82

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.82

$3.09 → $3.82 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.23B

$3.06B → $3.23B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.09	$3,057,564,282	8 / 5
2026-07-25	$3.09	$3,057,564,282	8 / 5
2026-07-26	$3.05	$3,118,514,190	13 / 6
2026-07-27	$3.05	$3,118,514,190	13 / 6
2026-07-28	$3.05	$3,118,514,190	13 / 6
2026-07-29	$3.09	$3,118,514,190	13 / 6
2026-07-30	$3.09	$3,118,514,190	13 / 6
2026-07-31	$3.09	$3,118,514,190	13 / 6
2026-08-01	$3.12	$3,063,268,646	8 / 5
2026-08-02	$3.09	$3,118,514,190	13 / 6
2026-08-03	$3.09	$3,118,514,190	13 / 6
2026-08-04	$3.09	$3,118,514,190	13 / 6
2026-08-05	$3.09	$3,118,514,190	13 / 6
2026-08-06	$3.12	$3,063,268,646	8 / 5
2026-08-07	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 5
2026-08-08	$3.05	$3,091,197,880	13 / 7
2026-08-09	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 5
2026-08-10	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 5
2026-08-12	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 5
2026-08-13	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 5
2026-08-14	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 5
2026-08-15	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 5
2026-08-16	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 6
2026-08-17	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 6
2026-08-18	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 6
2026-08-19	$3.05	$3,063,268,646	8 / 6
2026-08-20	$2.92	$3,084,667,823	9 / 6
2026-08-21	$2.94	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-08-22	$2.94	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-08-23	$2.94	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-08-24	$2.94	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-08-25	$2.95	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-08-26	$2.95	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-08-27	$2.95	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-08-28	$2.95	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-08-29	$2.95	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-08-30	$2.95	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-08-31	$2.95	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-09-01	$2.95	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-09-02	$2.95	$3,089,928,868	9 / 6
2026-09-03	$2.92	$3,078,538,888	9 / 6
2026-09-04	$2.98	$3,056,718,980	9 / 6
2026-09-05	$2.98	$3,056,718,980	9 / 6
2026-09-06	$3.23	$3,060,897,897	10 / 6
2026-09-07	$3.23	$3,060,897,897	10 / 6
2026-09-08	$3.04	$3,060,897,897	10 / 6
2026-09-09	$3.07	$3,060,897,897	10 / 6
2026-09-10	$3.07	$3,060,897,897	10 / 6
2026-09-11	$3.07	$3,060,939,564	10 / 6
2026-09-12	$3.07	$3,060,939,564	9 / 6
2026-09-13	$3.07	$3,060,939,564	9 / 6
2026-09-14	$3.07	$3,060,939,564	9 / 6
2026-09-15	$3.08	$3,071,680,379	9 / 6
2026-09-16	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-17	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-18	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-19	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-20	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-21	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-22	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-23	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-24	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-25	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-26	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-27	$3.16	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-28	$3.20	$3,092,263,712	9 / 7
2026-09-29	$3.20	$3,092,263,712	9 / 6
2026-09-30	$3.20	$3,092,263,712	9 / 6
2026-10-01	$3.20	$3,092,263,712	9 / 6
2026-10-02	$3.20	$3,105,103,046	9 / 6
2026-10-03	$3.20	$3,106,144,621	9 / 6
2026-10-04	$3.27	$3,106,144,621	9 / 6
2026-10-05	$3.27	$3,106,144,621	9 / 6
2026-10-06	$3.27	$3,106,144,621	9 / 6
2026-10-07	$3.32	$3,118,561,287	9 / 6
2026-10-08	$3.32	$3,118,561,287	9 / 6
2026-10-09	$3.32	$3,118,561,287	9 / 6
2026-10-10	$3.32	$3,118,561,287	9 / 6
2026-10-11	$3.32	$3,118,561,287	9 / 6
2026-10-12	$3.32	$3,118,561,287	9 / 6
2026-10-13	$3.31	$3,118,561,287	9 / 6
2026-10-14	$3.31	$3,118,562,911	8 / 6
2026-10-15	$3.67	$3,179,311,827	8 / 6
2026-10-16	$3.70	$3,222,058,140	9 / 6
2026-10-17	$3.70	$3,222,058,140	9 / 6
2026-10-18	$3.68	$3,222,057,071	9 / 6
2026-10-19	$3.68	$3,222,057,071	9 / 7
2026-10-20	$3.74	$3,213,910,137	9 / 7
2026-10-21	$3.73	$3,211,510,780	9 / 7
2026-10-22	$3.73	$3,211,510,780	9 / 7
2026-10-23	$3.73	$3,211,511,773	9 / 7
2026-10-24	$3.82	$3,231,317,923	9 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings