Reading MTRX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MTRX free→Reading MTRX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MTRX free→NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 73% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 MTRX trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $50 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 73% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -3.76x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.18 → $0.17 (-8.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$142.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$389.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,603.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the Industrials sector gets better, Matrix Service could see a better outlook.
Confirms:The sector is growing again. Revenue growth is above 5%.
Disproves:Sector growth is slowing down. This shows ongoing challenges for Matrix Service.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MTRX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction & Engineering.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MTRX Matrix Service Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PWR Quanta Services | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FIX Comfort Systems USA | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EME Emcor | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | full | moderate |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has adjusted the full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance downward.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 was lowered to $870M-$890M, down from the previous range of $875M-$925M. Revenue decreased from $211.9M in 2026-Q1 to $206.7M in 2026-Q3, indicating limited progress towards growth targets.
“We have elected to lower our full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance.”
“The Company reaffirmed full year revenue guidance of between $875 million and $925 million.”
“The Company reaffirmed its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026.”
“We expect revenue growth to be approximately 17% at the midpoint of our guided range.”
The company announced a CEO transition with Shawn P. Payne assuming the role effective July 1, 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q3. The CEO transition is set to occur with Shawn P. Payne taking over on July 1, 2026. This leadership change is part of broader organizational changes, but its impact on financial performance remains to be seen.
“Shawn P. Payne as Chief Executive Officer, who will assume his new role effective July 1, 2026.”
The company aims to improve cash flow from operations, which has shown positive movement.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operations improved significantly from -$25.9M in 2026-Q1 to $34.16M in 2026-Q3, indicating progress in operational efficiency and cost management.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its weak financial status.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a positive change in revenue or profit margins compared to last quarter.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows losses. There is no improvement in revenue.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers As part of broader organizational changes across the Company following the previously announced appointment of Shawn P. Payne as Chief Executive Officer, who will assume his new role effective July 1, 2026, Kevin S. Cavanah, Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer, and Nancy E. Austin, Chief Administrative Officer, will step down from…
and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On December 30, 2025, Mr. Douglas J. Montalbano notified Matrix Service Company (the “Company”) that he is resigning his position as President of Matrix North American Construction, Inc. (“Matrix NAC”), a union operating subsidiary of the Company, effective January 16, 2026. The resignation of Mr. Montalbano is not related to any dispute or disagree…
and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
“Cash from operations improved to $34.16 million in 2026-Q3.”
“Cash from operations was $7.45 million.”
“Cash from operations was negative $25.9 million.”