Reading MTDR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MTDR free→Reading MTDR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MTDR free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. The company is not currently profitable, so the read leans on sales- and cash-based methods. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $51.37. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $51 MTDR trades at 10× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $51 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $59–$79. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 0% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.49x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated robust grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 35% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.75 → $2.11 (+20.9% / 30d). 7 raised, 9 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 79% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 37.9% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$193.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$458.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,876.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from full to fair. Risk fell, indicating a decrease in the overall risk profile. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, suggesting ongoing challenges in the environment. Management is noted as volatile, reflecting uncertainty in leadership performance.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows financial health. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Confirms:Dividends are paid on time without cuts for two quarters.
Disproves:Dividends are cut or delayed.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MTDR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 is a press release (the “Press Release”) issued by Matador Resources Company (the “Company”) on May 6, 2026 , announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026 and updating full year 2026 production guidance. The Press Release is incorporated by reference into this Item 2.02, and the foregoing description of the Press Release is qualified in its entirety by reference to this exhibit. The in…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$59.00 – $79.00 (median $73.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MTDR Matador Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | full | elevated |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated volatile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=252).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Matador aims to increase its production guidance estimates for the full year 2026.
Matador is committed to maintaining its dividend payments to shareholders.
Matador is undergoing an executive leadership transition with internal promotions.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show financial health and how well the company operates.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue drop or fails to meet analyst expectations.
Why it matters: New production guidance will show if the company can boost output. This is key for growth.
Confirms:Production guidance for 2026 is higher than before.
Disproves:Production guidance for 2026 stays the same or is lower.
Why it matters: Updates on production guidance will show how well Matador is meeting its growth goals.
Confirms:Production guidance for 2026 is increased beyond the current estimate of 5% growth.
Disproves:Production guidance is the same or lower than current estimates.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends can show financial health and management's trust in cash flow.
Confirms one read:Dividends are maintained or increased from the current $0.375 per share.
Confirms the other:Dividends are cut or paused, showing cash flow problems.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Matador Resources Company (the “Company”) today announced the promotion of Christopher P. Calvert to Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Glenn W. Stetson to Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, each effective as of April 21, 2026. Mr. Calvert joined the Company in October 2014 and most recently served as the Com…
Regulation FD Disclosure. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 is a press release issued by Matador Resources Company (the “Company”) on April 22, 2026 , announcing the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend on its common stock. The dividend is being paid pursuant to the dividend policy (the “Policy”) adopted by the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) in October 2025. The payment of future dividends will be made at the discretion of the Board and will depend on the Company’s results of op…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously disclosed, on February 26, 2026, Matador Resources Company (the “Company”) and certain of its subsidiaries (the “Guarantors”) entered into a purchase agreement with BofA Securities, Inc. (“BofA”), as representative of the several initial purchasers named therein (collectively, the “Initial Purchasers”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell $750.0 million in aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 6.000% Senior Not…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 is a press release (the “Earnings Press Release”) issued by Matador Resources Company (the “Company”) on February 24, 2026, announcing its financial results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025. The Earnings Press Release includes an operational update at February 24, 2026 and 2026 operating plan and market guidance. The Earnings Press Release is incorporated by reference into this Item 2.02, and…