Matador Resources (MTDR)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$59.96+5.58%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Matador Resources’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+13.7% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.65 → 9.84 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Capital expenditure	$410M–$440M	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.24B
EPS	—	2.269
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.3B
EPS	—	8.171
Capital expenditure	$1.68B	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.89B
EPS	—	9.838

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain or increase dividend payments	Dividend payments are stable and slightly increased, showing capital return discipline.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.30 per quarter	Dividend per share: $0.38 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.38 per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260.375 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4d94793b-0940-4517-ac46-59db7c5f050d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow of about $1.15 billion in FY 2026	Free cash flow is expected to rise to about $1.15 billion in 2026.	Under Pressure	Free cash flow falls below $1.0 billion in FY 2026	Free cash flow: $569.16M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.15 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026569,160,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stable and effective management execution	A supporting condition in Matador Resources's published investment case. The stated target is No further guidance cuts or major negative surprises.	Improving	Additional guidance cuts or major negative news on hedging or capital allocation	No guidance cuts; $1.26B deal closed Paloma acquisition closed; CEO bought stock; no new guidance cuts reported. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth near 20% in next 12 months	A primary condition in Matador Resources's published investment case. The stated target is >= 20% YoY revenue growth.	Improving	Revenue growth falls below 10% YoY next year	Revenue growth: 32.51% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 20% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202632.511571 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4d94793b-0940-4517-ac46-59db7c5f050d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.84

$7.97 → $9.84 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.89B

$4.37B → $4.89B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.97	$4,367,884,382	12 / 5
2026-07-25	$8.28	$4,506,537,520	18 / 8
2026-07-26	$8.28	$4,506,537,520	18 / 8
2026-07-27	$8.06	$4,472,827,342	12 / 7
2026-07-28	$8.47	$4,398,699,360	15 / 6
2026-07-29	$8.61	$4,475,367,310	15 / 6
2026-07-30	$8.61	$4,475,367,310	15 / 6
2026-07-31	$8.78	$4,504,440,770	14 / 5
2026-08-01	$8.18	$4,528,416,030	10 / 6
2026-08-02	$8.78	$4,504,440,770	14 / 5
2026-08-03	$8.20	$4,555,625,324	10 / 5
2026-08-04	$8.78	$4,504,440,770	14 / 5
2026-08-05	$8.20	$4,555,625,324	10 / 5
2026-08-06	$8.78	$4,504,440,770	14 / 5
2026-08-07	$8.18	$4,577,272,383	10 / 5
2026-08-08	$8.78	$4,504,440,770	14 / 5
2026-08-09	$8.78	$4,504,440,770	14 / 5
2026-08-10	$8.78	$4,504,440,770	14 / 5
2026-08-12	$8.64	$4,465,883,910	14 / 6
2026-08-13	$8.64	$4,465,883,910	14 / 6
2026-08-14	$8.18	$4,577,272,383	10 / 5
2026-08-15	$8.18	$4,577,272,383	10 / 5
2026-08-16	$8.18	$4,577,272,383	11 / 6
2026-08-17	$8.18	$4,577,272,383	11 / 6
2026-08-18	$8.18	$4,577,272,383	10 / 6
2026-08-19	$8.18	$4,577,272,383	10 / 6
2026-08-20	$8.09	$4,658,101,281	10 / 6
2026-08-21	$8.14	$4,673,865,986	10 / 6
2026-08-22	$8.14	$4,673,865,986	10 / 6
2026-08-23	$8.14	$4,673,865,986	10 / 6
2026-08-24	$8.14	$4,673,865,986	10 / 5
2026-08-25	$8.14	$4,673,865,986	10 / 5
2026-08-26	$8.17	$4,681,336,575	10 / 5
2026-08-27	$8.17	$4,681,336,575	10 / 5
2026-08-28	$8.17	$4,681,336,575	10 / 5
2026-08-29	$8.17	$4,681,336,575	10 / 5
2026-08-30	$8.17	$4,681,336,575	10 / 5
2026-08-31	$8.17	$4,681,336,575	10 / 5
2026-09-01	$8.17	$4,681,336,575	10 / 5
2026-09-02	$8.17	$4,681,336,575	10 / 5
2026-09-03	$8.18	$4,677,205,179	10 / 5
2026-09-04	$8.24	$4,681,543,780	9 / 5
2026-09-05	$8.24	$4,681,543,780	10 / 5
2026-09-06	$8.24	$4,681,543,780	10 / 5
2026-09-07	$8.24	$4,681,543,780	10 / 5
2026-09-08	$8.24	$4,681,543,780	10 / 5
2026-09-09	$8.24	$4,681,543,780	10 / 5
2026-09-10	$8.34	$4,681,543,780	10 / 5
2026-09-11	$8.34	$4,681,543,780	10 / 5
2026-09-12	$8.45	$4,703,543,780	10 / 5
2026-09-13	$8.45	$4,703,543,780	10 / 5
2026-09-14	$8.45	$4,703,543,780	11 / 6
2026-09-15	$8.59	$4,703,543,780	11 / 6
2026-09-16	$8.65	$4,716,877,114	10 / 5
2026-09-17	$8.65	$4,716,877,114	10 / 5
2026-09-18	$8.65	$4,716,877,114	10 / 5
2026-09-19	$8.65	$4,716,877,114	10 / 5
2026-09-20	$8.65	$4,716,877,114	10 / 5
2026-09-21	$8.65	$4,716,877,114	10 / 5
2026-09-22	$8.65	$4,716,877,114	10 / 5
2026-09-23	$8.65	$4,716,877,114	10 / 5
2026-09-24	$8.65	$4,716,877,114	10 / 5
2026-09-25	$8.70	$4,716,877,114	10 / 5
2026-09-26	$8.70	$4,716,877,114	10 / 5
2026-09-27	$8.83	$4,746,679,169	10 / 5
2026-09-28	$8.83	$4,746,679,169	9 / 5
2026-09-29	$8.83	$4,746,679,169	9 / 5
2026-09-30	$8.83	$4,746,679,169	9 / 5
2026-10-01	$8.80	$4,746,679,169	9 / 5
2026-10-02	$8.80	$4,746,679,169	9 / 5
2026-10-03	$8.80	$4,749,805,365	9 / 5
2026-10-04	$8.88	$4,751,882,143	10 / 5
2026-10-05	$8.88	$4,751,882,143	10 / 5
2026-10-06	$8.88	$4,751,882,143	9 / 5
2026-10-07	$8.88	$4,751,882,143	9 / 5
2026-10-08	$8.88	$4,751,882,143	9 / 5
2026-10-09	$8.88	$4,751,882,143	9 / 5
2026-10-10	$9.01	$4,751,882,143	9 / 5
2026-10-11	$9.01	$4,751,882,143	9 / 5
2026-10-12	$9.01	$4,751,882,143	9 / 5
2026-10-13	$9.01	$4,754,215,476	10 / 6
2026-10-14	$9.09	$4,755,321,349	10 / 6
2026-10-15	$9.26	$4,793,412,407	10 / 6
2026-10-16	$9.47	$4,828,024,470	10 / 7
2026-10-17	$9.47	$4,828,024,470	10 / 7
2026-10-18	$9.47	$4,826,651,118	11 / 6
2026-10-19	$9.47	$4,826,651,118	11 / 6
2026-10-20	$9.68	$4,860,019,539	11 / 6
2026-10-21	$9.69	$4,860,387,960	12 / 6
2026-10-22	$9.77	$4,878,861,644	12 / 6
2026-10-23	$9.77	$4,878,866,576	12 / 6
2026-10-24	$9.84	$4,887,340,592	13 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	16	5
2026-06-01	16	4
2026-07-01	16	3
2026-08-01	16	3
2026-09-01	18	3
2026-10-01	18	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 19 · prior May 27

$77.00 → $71.00-7.8%

Truist FinancialOct 14 · prior Aug 10

$59.00 → $65.00+10.2%

ScotiabankOct 14

$59.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$42.35$84.70

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain or increase dividend paymentsDividend per share: $0.38 per share
Free cash flow of about $1.15 billion in FY 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth near 20% in next 12 monthsRevenue growth: 32.51%

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Matador Resources outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MTDR is a cyclical energy producer with a multi-year view tied to capital-efficient production, drilling inventory, and balance-sheet progress. The thesis is intact, though confidence is medium and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Matador Resources

The valuation evidence describes MTDR as cheap versus peers, with expectations below the model’s baseline. The priced-in assessment is justified and fragility is low, though the sector remains turbulent.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong relative to the industry, and management reported production above its prior guidance midpoint before raising full-year production guidance without changing capital spending guidance. Longer term, added drilling locations support inventory, but revenue declined across the cited periods and debt-reduction progress is mixed; a guidance reversal would also damage credibility.

What Matador Resources hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued capital-efficient production growth and execution on the expanded drilling inventory and debt reduction. Near term, guidance credibility and sector signals matter: continued strength from COP, EOG, and OXY would sustain the energy-sector tailwind, while weaker results or lower guidance could erode it.