Reading MRCY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MRCY free→Reading MRCY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MRCY free→NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, MRCY is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 148% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $115.93. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $116 MRCY trades at 8× p/s — 2.0× the 4× p/s peer median, and above its own 4× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $47 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $68–$106. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 146% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted -6.97x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.35 → $0.40 (+12.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 7 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -5.6% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$205.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$455.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,219.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
The signal changed to "mild favorable." Risk rose. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Earnings quality is loss-making. Recent financial performance is neutral. The valuation is expensive based on peer multiples.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth is below this level, it shows weak demand and problems in execution.
Confirms:Q2 FY26 revenue growth was below 7.1% compared to last year.
Disproves:Q2 FY26 revenue growth reported at or above 7.1% year-over-year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MRCY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and the exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing. Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures I…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$68.00 – $106.00 (median $100.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electrical Components & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MRCY Mercury Systems | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ETN Eaton Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | moderate |
VRT Vertiv | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EMR Emerson Electric | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BE Bloom Energy Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | expensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving organic revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Increase cash flow from operations through strategic financial management.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is making more money and growing revenue.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows operating income over $5 million. Revenue grew by more than 10%.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows operating income under $5 million. Revenue grew by less than 5%.
Why it matters: Negative cash flow may show bigger operational problems or more need for money.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations reported as negative in the next quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations remains positive in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Slower backlog growth may mean lower revenue expectations in the future.
Confirms:Backlog growth was below 17.9% compared to last year.
Disproves:Backlog growth was above 17.9% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is important for business activities and growth plans.
Confirms:Cash from operations increases to over $70 million in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations drops below $60 million in Q2.
Why it matters: If the margin is below this level, it shows problems with costs and profits.
Confirms:The adjusted EBITDA margin was less than 12.9%.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin was at or above 12.9%.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for the company's long-term success and market position.
Confirms:Revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Revenue growth falls below 5% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: If free cash flow is below this level, it may show cash generation problems.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported below $46 million.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported at or above $46 million.
Why it matters: If backlog growth is below this level, it may mean future revenue will slow down.
Confirms:Backlog growth was below 8.8% compared to last year.
Disproves:Backlog growth was at or above 8.8% compared to last year.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and the exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing. Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures I…