Mercury Systems (MRCY)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-29
$77.54-5.21%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put MRCY beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Electrical Components & Equipment is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Sustain organic revenue growth near 11.5% YoY: Direct metric needs a verified mapping.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 9% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 30% growth a year, above the roughly 14% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 41% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskMRCY’s Phoenix expansion supports revenue and backlog growth, but organic revenue growth remains the key pressure point. Revenue growth slowed to 6.1% in fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 from 11.5% in Q3. That quarter’s non-GAAP EPS beat consensus, supporting the growth case. MRCY trades at 5.0× sales versus a 2.8× peer median, near its 5.2× history. The market prices in more growth than our forecast, leaving expectations full. A 23% next-quarter miss probability adds risk; the premium must be earned. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% below where it trades. Our read remains provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. MRCY is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 12 analysts currently covering MRCY (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 7 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for MRCY in the last 4 months.
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Compare MRCY with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRCY Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Electrical Components & Equipment — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put MRCY next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Increase revenue and backlog growth
Facility expansion supports production capacity and potential revenue and backlog growth.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $77.54
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $77.54.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Increase revenue and backlog growth
Record orders indicate strong demand and support future revenue visibility.
Advances: Increase revenue and backlog growth
Earnings call can confirm progress on growth, profitability, and cash-flow objectives.
Partnership could drive revenue and backlog growth.
Advances: Increase revenue and backlog growth
Record bookings and backlog support growth visibility and improving execution.
Advances: Increase revenue and backlog growth
Positive initiation suggests growth potential.
Advances: Increase revenue and backlog growth
Bullish outlook on ruggedized compute supports growth.
Advances: Increase revenue and backlog growth
Overweight rating indicates positive growth outlook.
