Reading MGY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MGY free→Reading MGY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MGY free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. Watch for potential guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly influence the stock's trajectory. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $27.14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $27 MGY trades at 15× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $21 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $25–$35. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 26% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.64x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated robust grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 35% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.82 → $0.87 (+5.6% / 30d). 13 raised, 3 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 24.3% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$129.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$312.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,632.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Maintaining production growth is key for Magnolia's long-term value. It shows operational strength.
Confirms:Q2 production growth of at least 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 production growth falls below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MGY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein, announcing its financial and operational results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$25.00 – $35.00 (median $32.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas, Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | full | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to achieve a full-year production growth of approximately 5% in 2026.
Maintain capital spending for 2026 within the range of $440 to $480 million.
Focus on increasing working interest in high-return development areas through acquisitions.
Magnolia Oil & Gas aims to increase its dividend per share as part of its capital allocation strategy.
The company focuses on maintaining strong cash flow from operations to support its financial health.
Why it matters: A drop in cash from operations signals weaker financial health. This affects dividend plans.
Confirms:Q2 cash from operations falls below $197.62M.
Disproves:Q2 cash from operations stays the same or goes up over $197.62M.
Why it matters: Deals can boost growth. They can also increase interest in valuable assets.
Confirms:New deals were announced in areas with high returns.
Disproves:No new acquisitions announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Staying within capex guidance shows financial discipline and supports growth plans.
Confirms one read:Q2 capital spending was between $120 million and $125 million.
Confirms the other:Q2 capital spending was below $120 million.
Why it matters: If energy sector revenue growth speeds up, it could help Magnolia's performance. It may signal a sector recovery.
Confirms:Energy sector revenue growth rises back toward 6% or higher.
Disproves:Energy sector revenue growth is still under 6%.
Why it matters: Raising dividends would show strong cash flow and a promise to give value to shareholders.
Confirms:Announcement of a dividend increase from the current $0.165 per share.
Disproves:No announcement of a dividend increase or a decrease in the dividend.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein, announcing its financial and operational results for the fourth quarter and full-year ended December 31, 2025. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securiti…