Magnolia Oil & Gas, Corp. (MGY)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$26.15+3.48%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Magnolia Oil & Gas, Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+2.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.05 → 3.12 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
D&C capital expenditure	$155M–$165M	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	737.16M
EPS	—	0.865
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.04B
EPS	—	2.983
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.74B
EPS	—	3.117

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain capital spending within $440-$480 million for 2026	Magnolia Oil & Gas keeps capital spending within $440-$480 million for 2026.	Intact	CAPEX exceeds $480 million or falls below $440 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $125.129M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: CAPEX between $440 million and $480 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026125,129,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS growth near $2.95 for FY26	It beat earnings with $0.54 EPS in Q1 and shows steady revenue growth of 2% year over year.	Improving	EPS falls below $2.95 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.97 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $2.95. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.97 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth near 12% for next 12 months	A supporting condition in Magnolia Oil & Gas, Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=12% YoY revenue growth.	Improving	Revenue growth falls below 12% next 12 months	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.12

$2.78 → $3.12 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.74B

$2.07B → $2.74B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.78	$2,072,637,663	10 / 9
2026-07-25	$3.49	$2,687,755,580	9 / 9
2026-07-26	$3.49	$2,687,755,580	9 / 9
2026-07-27	$2.89	$2,273,660,880	7 / 8
2026-07-28	$3.49	$2,687,755,580	9 / 9
2026-07-29	$3.33	$2,687,755,580	11 / 9
2026-07-30	$3.33	$2,687,755,580	11 / 9
2026-07-31	$3.32	$2,686,412,370	12 / 10
2026-08-01	$2.96	$2,351,535,880	8 / 7
2026-08-02	$3.32	$2,686,412,370	12 / 10
2026-08-03	$3.32	$2,686,412,370	12 / 10
2026-08-04	$3.32	$2,686,412,370	12 / 10
2026-08-05	$2.96	$2,351,535,880	8 / 7
2026-08-06	$2.96	$2,351,535,880	8 / 7
2026-08-07	$2.99	$2,351,535,880	9 / 7
2026-08-08	$2.99	$2,351,535,880	9 / 7
2026-08-09	$3.31	$2,685,502,370	13 / 10
2026-08-10	$2.99	$2,351,535,880	9 / 7
2026-08-12	$3.21	$2,579,120,320	14 / 11
2026-08-13	$2.99	$2,351,535,880	9 / 7
2026-08-14	$2.99	$2,351,535,880	9 / 7
2026-08-15	$2.99	$2,351,535,880	9 / 7
2026-08-16	$2.99	$2,351,535,880	9 / 7
2026-08-17	$2.99	$2,351,535,880	9 / 7
2026-08-18	$2.99	$2,351,535,880	10 / 7
2026-08-19	$2.99	$2,351,535,880	10 / 7
2026-08-20	$3.05	$2,500,264,479	9 / 7
2026-08-21	$3.05	$2,500,264,479	9 / 7
2026-08-22	$3.05	$2,500,264,479	9 / 7
2026-08-23	$3.05	$2,500,264,479	9 / 8
2026-08-24	$3.05	$2,500,264,479	9 / 8
2026-08-25	$3.05	$2,500,264,479	9 / 8
2026-08-26	$3.05	$2,500,264,479	9 / 8
2026-08-27	$3.05	$2,500,264,479	9 / 8
2026-08-28	$3.05	$2,500,264,479	9 / 8
2026-08-29	$3.05	$2,500,264,479	9 / 8
2026-08-30	$3.05	$2,500,264,479	9 / 8
2026-08-31	$3.05	$2,500,264,479	9 / 8
2026-09-01	$3.05	$2,500,264,479	9 / 8
2026-09-02	$3.05	$2,500,264,479	9 / 8
2026-09-03	$3.06	$2,505,362,019	9 / 8
2026-09-04	$3.06	$2,515,476,017	9 / 8
2026-09-05	$3.06	$2,515,476,017	10 / 8
2026-09-06	$3.04	$2,520,133,253	10 / 9
2026-09-07	$3.04	$2,520,133,253	10 / 9
2026-09-08	$3.04	$2,520,133,253	11 / 9
2026-09-09	$3.04	$2,522,337,425	10 / 9
2026-09-10	$3.04	$2,522,337,425	10 / 9
2026-09-11	$3.04	$2,522,337,425	10 / 9
2026-09-12	$3.04	$2,520,674,184	10 / 9
2026-09-13	$3.04	$2,520,674,184	10 / 9
2026-09-14	$3.04	$2,520,674,184	10 / 9
2026-09-15	$3.10	$2,520,674,184	10 / 9
2026-09-16	$3.10	$2,530,585,949	10 / 9
2026-09-17	$3.10	$2,530,585,949	10 / 9
2026-09-18	$3.10	$2,530,585,949	10 / 9
2026-09-19	$3.10	$2,530,585,949	10 / 9
2026-09-20	$3.10	$2,530,585,949	10 / 9
2026-09-21	$3.10	$2,530,585,949	10 / 9
2026-09-22	$3.05	$2,530,191,832	10 / 9
2026-09-23	$3.05	$2,530,191,832	10 / 8
2026-09-24	$3.05	$2,530,191,832	10 / 8
2026-09-25	$3.08	$2,530,191,832	10 / 8
2026-09-26	$3.08	$2,530,191,832	10 / 8
2026-09-27	$3.08	$2,530,191,832	10 / 8
2026-09-28	$3.08	$2,530,191,832	10 / 8
2026-09-29	$3.08	$2,530,191,832	10 / 8
2026-09-30	$3.08	$2,530,191,832	10 / 8
2026-10-01	$3.08	$2,530,191,832	10 / 8
2026-10-02	$3.12	$2,602,743,537	10 / 8
2026-10-03	$3.14	$2,687,883,210	10 / 9
2026-10-04	$3.13	$2,690,672,551	10 / 9
2026-10-05	$3.13	$2,690,672,551	10 / 9
2026-10-06	$3.02	$2,688,599,984	9 / 9
2026-10-07	$3.02	$2,696,278,166	9 / 9
2026-10-08	$3.02	$2,696,278,166	9 / 9
2026-10-09	$3.02	$2,696,278,166	9 / 9
2026-10-10	$3.02	$2,696,278,166	9 / 9
2026-10-11	$3.03	$2,696,278,166	9 / 9
2026-10-12	$3.03	$2,696,278,166	9 / 9
2026-10-13	$3.03	$2,696,278,166	9 / 9
2026-10-14	$3.00	$2,690,003,047	9 / 9
2026-10-15	$3.00	$2,698,042,052	9 / 9
2026-10-16	$3.03	$2,718,195,273	10 / 9
2026-10-17	$3.03	$2,718,195,273	10 / 9
2026-10-18	$3.03	$2,722,361,939	10 / 9
2026-10-19	$3.09	$2,722,361,939	10 / 9
2026-10-20	$3.11	$2,724,449,784	10 / 9
2026-10-21	$3.09	$2,725,456,228	10 / 9
2026-10-22	$3.09	$2,725,456,228	11 / 9
2026-10-23	$3.12	$2,735,895,117	11 / 9
2026-10-24	$3.12	$2,735,895,117	11 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	9
2026-06-01	10	9
2026-07-01	11	8
2026-08-01	12	7
2026-09-01	14	7
2026-10-01	15	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 15 · prior Jul 10

$34.00 → $35.00+2.9%

ScotiabankOct 14

$31.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$19.25$38.50

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain capital spending within $440-$480 million for 2026Capital expenditures: $125.129M
EPS growth near $2.95 for FY26Diluted EPS: $0.97 per share
Revenue growth near 12% for next 12 monthsDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Magnolia Oil & Gas, Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an energy producer with a multi-year thesis built on production growth, disciplined capital spending, and returning cash to shareholders. The thesis is currently intact, and the latest signal improved to favorable, though management and earnings quality are rated neutral.

What's priced into Magnolia Oil & Gas, Corp.

The valuation evidence points to MGY being cheap versus peers, while the model also indicates a premium relative to peers, so the comparison is not clear-cut. Expectations appear modest, and the evidence says the current setup is justified rather than unusually fragile; sector turbulence is the main source of fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term fundamentals have been strong: second-quarter production grew 8% year over year, exceeded prior guidance, and led management to raise 2026 production-growth guidance from 5% to 6%. Capital spending guidance remains within the stated range, while share repurchases and a higher dividend show continued cash returns. Near-term miss risk is assessed as low, but the company’s history of a deep miss and recent peer misses remain watchpoints.

What Magnolia Oil & Gas, Corp. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on MGY sustaining production growth while keeping capital spending disciplined. A reversal and guidance cut after the recent increase would damage confidence. Energy-sector support also matters: continued strength from peers could preserve the tailwind, while weaker results or lower guidance from them could remove it.