Reading MBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MBI free→Reading MBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MBI free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with MBI compared to sector peers being below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact MBI's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.31. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.31 MBI trades at 3× p/s — 2.1× the 1× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $7.26 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 13% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.31x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.13 → $-0.05 (+60.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$170.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$383.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,149.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
As of June 16, 2026, confidence changed to low. Risk rose, indicating elevated concerns. Earnings quality fell, reflecting a loss-making status. The sector backdrop remained a headwind, suggesting ongoing challenges in the environment.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below the median, it shows a slowdown in finance. This can hurt MBIA's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below the median of 15%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays above the median of 15%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MBI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition of Form 8-K. On May 7, 2026, MBIA Inc. (“MBIA”) issued a press release announcing that the Registrant’s results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, were available via a financial results report on the Registrant’s website at https://investor.mbia.com/investor-relations/financial-information/default.aspx . A copy of the financial results report is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference to this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MBI MBIA, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 1 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CB Chubb Limited | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: Important economic reports can affect MBIA's market position and how investors feel. Good data may help the outlook.
Confirms one read:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth above 3%.
Confirms the other:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales decline.
Why it matters: This report will show if MBIA's financial issues are improving or worsening. Investors will focus on revenue and profit trends.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue decline year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition of Form 8-K. On February 26, 2026, MBIA Inc. (“MBIA”) issued a press release announcing that the Registrant’s results of operations for the full year and the quarter-ended December 31, 2025, are available via a financial results report on the Registrant’s website at https://investor.mbia.com/investor-relations/financialinformation/default.aspx . A copy of the financial results report is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition of Form 8-K. On November 4, 2025, MBIA Inc. (“MBIA”) issued a press release announcing that the Registrant’s results of operations for the quarter ended September 30, 2025 were available via a financial results report on the Registrant’s website at https://investor.mbia.com/investor-relations/financial-information/default.aspx . A copy of the financial results report is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference to…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition of Form 8-K. On August 6, 2025, MBIA Inc. (“MBIA”) issued a press release announcing that the Registrant’s results of operations for the quarter ended June 30, 2025 were available via a financial results report on the Registrant’s website at https://investor.mbia.com/investor-relations/financial-information/default.aspx . A copy of the financial results report is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference to this