Reading JRVR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JRVR free→Reading JRVR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JRVR free→NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is neutral. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, JRVR trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 65% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This is because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. Watch for sector bellwethers like FNF, RYAN, and FAF for signals. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.17. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.17 JRVR trades at 5× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $12 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 64% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.11x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
18 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.29 → $0.26 (-12.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.7% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$131.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$457.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,620.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below median, it signals a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median of 15%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays above its median of 15%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for JRVR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Director Retirement As previously announced in a Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on April 14, 2026 by James River Group Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), on April 8, 2026, Dennis J. Langwell advised the Company that he did not intend to seek re-election as a director at the Company’s 2026…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
JRVR James River Group Holdings, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 4 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CB Chubb Limited | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
and in Exhibit 99.1 furnished herewith shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended or the Exchange Act unless specifically stated by the Company.
Other Events. On May 4, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.01 per share of common stock of the Company to be paid on June 30, 2026 to shareholders of record on June 8, 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 8, 2026, Dennis J. Langwell advised James River Group Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) that he does not intend to seek re-election as a director at the Company’s 2026 annual general meeting of shareholders. Mr. Langwell’s decision not to stand for re-election was not the result of a disagreement with the Company with respect to any matter re…
and in Exhibit 99.1 furnished herewith shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended or the Exchange Act unless specifically stated by the Company.