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Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IRWD)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$3.69+1.10%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 49% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from IRWD and the performance of sector bellwethers like TEVA and HLN. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
- Market cap
- $600.84M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2009-11-20
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.69. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$7.19consensus
Range $6.16 – $8.45
vs price: -49% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$7.02consensus
Range $5.57 – $8.47
vs price: -47% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $3.69 IRWD trades at 6× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $7.19 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
6.2x
peer 12.9x · own history —
Premium
0.5x peer
Growth the price needs
-49%
our forecast 13%
Our fair value
$7.19
range $6.23 – $8.46
WhyPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 49% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
92nd pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.10x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
33rd pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatile9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -15.8% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.33 → $0.28 (-15.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in (~0.5 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$301.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$806.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,360.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for Q2 earnings report on August 6, 2026
Why it matters: This report will provide insights into Ironwood's financial health and growth prospects.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue growth speeding up. It is now above 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report reveals revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Sector context
as of 2026-06-15
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for IRWD yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TEVA, HLN, and ZTS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting IRWD and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If IRWD raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for IRWD and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If IRWD cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like TEVA, HLN, and ZTS start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping IRWD and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2127d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 19, 2026, in connection with Mr. Silver’s new role as the Company’s interim chief financial officer and principal financial officer, the Committee approved a monthly interim assignment fee of $12,250 (the “Interim CFO Assignment Fee”) for Mr. Silver. Mr. Silver’s Interim CFO Assignment Fee will remain in place until the earlier of the Compan…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.