Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IRWD)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-09
$4.07-2.40%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Adjusted EBITDA over $300 million in 2026: FY26 EBITDA guidance $45M-$79M vs $300M target.
Ironwood aims for LINZESS sales of $1.125-$1.175 billion in 2026. Operating income rose from $6.8M to $72.6M in one quarter. Cash from operations is strong, over $74 million last quarter. These show good growth and profit progress.
Sales growth could slow or miss the $1.125 billion target. Profit gains might not continue past recent jumps. Cash flow could weaken, hurting financial stability.
The price is about 15% below our fair value near $5. Analysts expect about 21% revenue growth. Our view aligns with these expectations.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $300 million in FY26
Ironwood aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA greater than $300 million for the fiscal year 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth in the healthcare sector. The current thesis is intact, driven by strong sales growth of LINZESS and ongoing clinical development of apraglutide.
The valuation suggests that the stock is considered cheap compared to its peers. The market appears to have low expectations, as indicated by a negative expectations gap, which may provide some room for positive surprises.
Fundamentals are likely to improve as management continues to focus on maximizing LINZESS sales and advancing clinical trials. Recent financial performance has been strong, with significant growth in net income and cash flow.
The thesis hinges on the ability of management to maintain momentum in LINZESS sales and successfully advance apraglutide development. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers and overall economic conditions will be critical in shaping the outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the company's outlook. However, high dependence on a trial outcome threatens future sales growth for LINZESS. This uncertainty could impact the company's overall performance.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: LINZESS sales fall below $1.125 billion in FY26
Ironwood aims to achieve LINZESS U.S. net sales between $1.125 billion and $1.175 billion for the fiscal year 2026.
Breaks if: Cash flow from operations turns negative or weakens significantly
Overall, IRWD's prospects look promising in the medium term, but the elevated risks and market conditions warrant careful observation. Not investment advice.