Reading INDV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track INDV free→Reading INDV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track INDV free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind, although INDV trades above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. The analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $38.40. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $38 INDV trades at 13× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $39 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.44x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.75 → $0.92 (+22.7% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$137.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$287.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,137.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Slow SUBLOCADE growth may show problems with market demand or competition.
Confirms:In Q2, SUBLOCADE net revenue growth is below 13% from last year.
Disproves:Q2 SUBLOCADE net revenue growth meets or exceeds 13% year-over-year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: SUBLOCADE net revenue growth of 13%
Buyback plan supports SUBLOCADE revenue growth objective.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) Effective June 1, 2026, Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the "Company" or the "Registrant") will eliminate the position of Chief Scientific Officer. Dr. Christian Heidbreder will continue to report to the CEO in an advisory capacity on special projects through the end of 2026. Dr. Heidbreder's employment will terminate on December 31, 2026, and…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
INDV Indivior | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | low |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on accelerating SUBLOCADE net revenue and dispense unit growth as part of Phase II of the Indivior Action Agenda.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Total SUBLOCADE net revenue was $232 million for the 2026 quarter, compared to $176 million for the 2025 quarter, representing a 32% increase year-over-year. The trajectory is delivering on the stated priority of accelerating SUBLOCADE growth.
“CEO: 'We accelerated SUBLOCADE net revenue and dispense unit growth.'”
“CEO: 'Accelerating SUBLOCADE throughout 2026.'”
“CEO: 'Sharpened focus on U.S. SUBLOCADE as highest growth opportunity.'”
Aim for adjusted EBITDA growth of 50% year-over-year at the midpoint of guidance ranges.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA for the 2026 quarter was $164 million, compared to $78 million for the 2025 quarter, representing a 112% increase year-over-year. The trajectory is delivering well above the 50% growth target.
Commit to strategic capital deployment, including share repurchases and debt management.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Repurchased approximately four million shares in Q1 2026 for $125 million. The company is actively deploying capital strategically, aligning with its stated priority.
Indivior will eliminate the Chief Scientific Officer position, with Dr. Heidbreder transitioning to an advisory role.
Indivior has reported an increase in net income from $47 million in 2025-Q1 to $89 million in 2026-Q1.
Why it matters: Confirming net income growth will show if the positive trend continues. This affects investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 net income was over $89 million. This shows growth is still happening.
Disproves:Q2 net income was under $89 million. This shows growth may be reversing.
Why it matters: Lower EBITDA growth may show problems with cost control or making money.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA growth for Q2 is below 50% from last year.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA growth for Q2 is 50% or more from last year.
Why it matters: Updates show how much management believes in the company's value. They also show its future.
Confirms:They announced more share buybacks beyond the first $175 million.
Disproves:No updates or a halt in the share buyback program.
Why it matters: An increase in net income shows financial health and can boost investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Net income reported higher than the previous quarter.
Confirms the other:Net income reported lower than the previous quarter.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (“Indivior” or the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its financial results for the period ended March 31, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Other. On May 4, 2026 the Company issued a press release announcing that it had entered into an accelerated share repurchase agreement (the “ASR Agreement”) with an investment bank counterparty (the “Counterparty Bank”) to repurchase $175.0 million (the “Prepayment Amount”) of shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.001 per share (the “Common Stock”), as part of the Company’s previously announced $400 million share repurchase program (the “Share Repurchase Program”). The full text…
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. Indenture On March 17, 2026, Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued $500,000,000 principal amount of its 0.625% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031 (the “ Notes ”; the “ Convertible Notes Offering ”). The Notes were issued pursuant to, and are governed by, an indenture (the “ Indenture ”), dated as of March 17, 2026, between the Company and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association, as trustee (the “ Trustee ”). Pursuant to the pu…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant The disclosure set forth in
“CFO: 'Adjusted EBITDA growth of 50% year-over-year at the midpoint of our guidance ranges.'”
“CFO: 'Accelerating adjusted EBITDA and cash flow at a faster rate.'”
“CFO: 'Returned capital to our shareholders through the opportunistic repurchase of $125 million in shares.'”
“CFO: 'Strategically deploying our new $400 million share repurchase program.'”