Indivior (INDV)

NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-10-23

$34.47-2.43%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Indivior’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	337.9M
EPS	—	1.166
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.3B–$1.37B	1.33B
SUBLOCADE revenue	$1.01B–$1.05B	—
EPS	—	4.222
EBITDA	$700M–$740Mnon-GAAP	—
Operating expenses	$430M–$450Mnon-GAAP	—
Revenue growth	20%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.4B
EPS	—	4.62

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA growth	Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $164 million, beating the 50% growth target.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 25% YoY	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew 111% year-over-year to $186 million in 2026-Q2 and 112% to $164 million in 2026-Q1. Full-year 2026 guidance raised to 68% growth over 2025's $428 million. Management is delivering accelerated adjusted EBITDA growth as committed. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Strategic capital deployment	A supporting condition in Indivior's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or increase share repurchases and manage debt prudently.	Intact	Share repurchases drop below $100 million annually without offsetting capital returns	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company repurchased $175 million in shares in 2026-Q2 and $125 million in 2026-Q1, continuing its $400 million share repurchase program authorized in 2025-Q4. Management is delivering on strategic capital deployment including share repurchases. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Full-year 2026 revenue	A primary condition in Indivior's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.25 billion revenue in FY 2026.	Intact	Full-year revenue guidance falls below $1.2 billion	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Total SUBLOCADE net revenue grew 21% year-over-year to $253 million in 2026-Q2 and 32% year-over-year to $232 million in 2026-Q1. Full-year 2026 guidance raised to 20% growth over 2025's $856 million. Management is delivering on accelerating SUBLOCADE net revenue growth as planned. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
SUBLOCADE net revenue growth	A primary condition in Indivior's published investment case. The stated target is >=32% YoY growth in SUBLOCADE net revenue.	Broken	SUBLOCADE revenue growth falls below 15% YoY	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Total SUBLOCADE net revenue grew 21% year-over-year to $253 million in 2026-Q2 and 32% year-over-year to $232 million in 2026-Q1. Full-year 2026 guidance raised to 20% growth over 2025's $856 million. Management is delivering on accelerating SUBLOCADE net revenue growth as planned. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-25	$4.17	$1,312,440,000	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$4.17	$1,312,440,000	5 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-28	$4.17	$1,312,440,000	5 / 5
2026-07-29	$4.17	$1,312,440,000	5 / 5
2026-07-30	$4.17	$1,312,440,000	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$4.17	$1,312,440,000	5 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	$4.17	$1,312,440,000	5 / 5
2026-08-03	$4.17	$1,312,440,000	5 / 5
2026-08-04	$4.17	$1,312,440,000	5 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-06	$4.32	$1,327,540,000	5 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	0	0
2026-06-01	7	0	0
2026-07-01	6	0	0
2026-08-01	6	0	0
2026-09-01	6	0	0
2026-10-01	4	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Strategic capital deploymentRequired source inputs unavailable
Full-year 2026 revenueDirect metric needs a verified mapping
SUBLOCADE net revenue growthPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Indivior outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented healthcare business with a favorable sector backdrop, robust earnings quality, and strong recent performance. The long-term thesis is intact, with management delivering on its stated growth priorities, though management has been volatile.

What's priced into Indivior

INDV is described as cheap versus peers, and the priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility. The evidence suggests expectations are not especially stretched, but it does not specify exactly what growth the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, SUBLOCADE revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth are tracking management’s priorities, and full-year 2026 guidance has been raised. Execution has been strong, but the industry has a high rate of earnings misses and INDV has had a deep miss in its recent history.

What Indivior hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued SUBLOCADE growth and delivery against the raised guidance. A guidance reversal would damage management credibility, while a weakening jobs report could add pressure; continued strong results from healthcare peers would support the sector backdrop.

Bottom line

For the next 1 to 3 years, the operating thesis remains intact and valuation appears cheap versus peers, but execution and economic conditions are meaningful swing factors. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	337.9M
EPS	—	1.166
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.3B–$1.37B	1.33B
SUBLOCADE revenue	$1.01B–$1.05B	—
EPS	—	4.222
EBITDA	$700M–$740Mnon-GAAP	—
Operating expenses	$430M–$450Mnon-GAAP	—
Revenue growth	20%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.4B
EPS	—	4.62

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-25	$4.17	$1,312,440,000	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$4.17	$1,312,440,000	5 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-28	$4.17	$1,312,440,000	5 / 5
2026-07-29	$4.17	$1,312,440,000	5 / 5
2026-07-30	$4.17	$1,312,440,000	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$4.17	$1,312,440,000	5 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	$4.17	$1,312,440,000	5 / 5
2026-08-03	$4.17	$1,312,440,000	5 / 5
2026-08-04	$4.17	$1,312,440,000	5 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-06	$4.32	$1,327,540,000	5 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings