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Henry Schein (HSIC)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$81.21+0.15%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The company is not currently profitable, so the read leans on sales- and cash-based methods. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Medical Distribution
- Market cap
- $9.26B
- Employees
- 25,000
- IPO date
- 1996-05-13
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $81.21. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$90.51consensus
Range $86.45 – $112.90
vs price: -10% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$146.93consensus
Range $124.75 – $210.88
vs price: -45% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $81 HSIC trades at 17× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $91 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $64–$100. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
17.1x
peer 19.0x · own history 16.5x
Premium
0.9x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-10%
our forecast 5%
Our fair value
$90.51
range $86.45 – $112.90
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 10% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
94th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.39x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
48th pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish15 analysts, 53% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.23 → $1.24 (+0.7% / 30d). 8 raised, 5 cut, 15 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 53% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 26.8% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$89.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$262.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,723.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for the filing of Q3 2023 Form 10-Q by November 2023
Why it matters: Filing the Form 10-Q on time shows recovery from the cybersecurity incident. It is key for compliance with Nasdaq listing rules.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The company files its Form 10-Q for Q3 2023 by the end of November 2023.
Disproves:The company fails to file the Form 10-Q by the end of November 2023.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-05-3018d agoYahoo! Finance
Advances: Achieve 3% to 5% sales growth in 2026
Steady dental demand supports sales growth objective.
Strongly reinforcesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MCK, COR, and CAH keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting HSIC and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If HSIC raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If HSIC beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a beat of +8% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If HSIC cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like MCK, COR, and CAH start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping HSIC and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-051mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Henry Schein, Inc. issued a press release reporting the financial results for the three months ended March 28, 2026. The full text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.