Henry Schein (HSIC)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-15

$86.38-0.70%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Henry Schein’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.01 → 5.99 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain mid-single digit EBITDA growth in 2026	Profit rises with mid-single digit EBITDA growth.	Under Pressure	EBITDA growth falls below 4% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA increased from $256M in 2025-Q2 to $288M in 2026-Q2, a growth of 12.5%. Management reaffirmed mid to high-single digit Adjusted EBITDA growth guidance for 2026, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Reaffirm EPS guidance for 2026 at $5.23 to $5.37	EPS is on track for $5.3 in 2026.	Under Pressure	EPS guidance falls below $5.23 for FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management reaffirmed and then raised 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance from $5.23-$5.37 to $5.29-$5.39. This is consistent with reported EPS growth from $4.97 in 2025 to expected $5.29+ in 2026, indicating delivery on EPS guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve 3% to 5% sales growth in 2026	A primary condition in Henry Schein's published investment case. The stated target is 3% to 5% YoY.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26	Revenue growth: 6.73% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 3% to 5% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20266.728395 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cae176c7-0c07-4d3e-a7fb-208a74f1812a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Total net sales grew from $3.24B in 2025-Q2 to $3.46B in 2026-Q2, a 6.7% increase, with consistent growth across quarters. Management has raised 2026 sales growth guidance to 4.5%-5.5%, reflecting delivery and acceleration of growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.99

$5.91 → $5.99 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$14.43B

$14.26B → $14.43B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.91	$14,258,191,675	11 / 13
2026-07-25	$5.91	$14,258,191,675	11 / 13
2026-07-26	$5.91	$14,257,685,425	11 / 13
2026-07-27	$5.91	$14,257,685,425	11 / 13
2026-07-28	$5.91	$14,257,685,344	11 / 13
2026-07-29	$5.91	$14,257,685,344	11 / 13
2026-07-30	$5.91	$14,257,685,344	11 / 13
2026-07-31	$5.90	$14,253,585,213	11 / 13
2026-08-01	$5.90	$14,253,585,213	11 / 13
2026-08-02	$5.90	$14,253,585,213	11 / 13
2026-08-03	$5.90	$14,253,585,213	11 / 13
2026-08-04	$5.91	$14,253,585,213	11 / 13
2026-08-05	$5.91	$14,253,585,213	11 / 13
2026-08-06	$5.91	$14,253,585,213	11 / 13
2026-08-07	$6.00	$14,424,696,383	11 / 13
2026-08-08	$6.00	$14,424,696,383	11 / 13
2026-08-09	$6.00	$14,424,696,383	11 / 13
2026-08-10	$6.00	$14,424,696,383	11 / 13
2026-08-12	$6.00	$14,424,696,383	11 / 13
2026-08-13	$6.00	$14,424,696,383	11 / 13
2026-08-14	$6.00	$14,424,696,383	11 / 13
2026-08-15	$6.00	$14,424,696,383	11 / 13
2026-08-16	$6.00	$14,424,696,383	11 / 13
2026-08-17	$6.00	$14,424,696,383	11 / 13
2026-08-18	$6.00	$14,424,696,383	11 / 13
2026-08-19	$6.00	$14,424,696,383	11 / 13
2026-08-20	$6.01	$14,430,575,145	11 / 13
2026-08-21	$6.01	$14,430,575,145	11 / 13
2026-08-22	$6.01	$14,430,575,145	11 / 13
2026-08-23	$6.01	$14,430,575,145	11 / 13
2026-08-24	$6.01	$14,430,575,145	11 / 13
2026-08-25	$6.01	$14,430,575,145	11 / 13
2026-08-26	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-08-27	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-08-28	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-08-29	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-08-30	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-08-31	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-01	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-02	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-03	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-04	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-05	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-06	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-07	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-08	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-09	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-10	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-11	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-12	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-13	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-14	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-15	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-16	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-17	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-18	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-19	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-20	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-21	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-22	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-23	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-24	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-25	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-26	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	11 / 13
2026-09-27	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	10 / 12
2026-09-28	$6.01	$14,430,574,931	10 / 12
2026-09-29	$6.00	$14,425,156,979	10 / 12
2026-09-30	$6.00	$14,425,156,979	10 / 12
2026-10-01	$6.00	$14,425,156,979	10 / 12
2026-10-02	$6.00	$14,425,156,979	10 / 12
2026-10-03	$6.00	$14,425,156,979	10 / 12
2026-10-04	$6.00	$14,425,156,979	10 / 12
2026-10-05	$6.00	$14,425,156,979	10 / 12
2026-10-06	$6.00	$14,425,128,408	10 / 12
2026-10-07	$6.00	$14,425,128,408	10 / 12
2026-10-08	$6.00	$14,424,494,488	11 / 12
2026-10-09	$6.00	$14,424,494,717	11 / 12
2026-10-10	$6.00	$14,424,494,717	11 / 12
2026-10-11	$6.00	$14,424,494,717	11 / 12
2026-10-12	$6.00	$14,424,494,717	11 / 12
2026-10-13	$5.99	$14,428,224,222	11 / 12
2026-10-14	$5.99	$14,428,224,222	11 / 12
2026-10-15	$5.99	$14,427,904,222	11 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	7	1
2026-06-01	9	7	1
2026-07-01	9	7	1
2026-08-01	9	7	1
2026-09-01	9	7	1
2026-10-01	8	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Leerink PartnersOct 14

$92.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$50.60$101.20

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain mid-single digit EBITDA growth in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Reaffirm EPS guidance for 2026 at $5.23 to $5.37Published status: Under Pressure
Achieve 3% to 5% sales growth in 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Henry Schein outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, as recent financial results have been strong and management is on track with its growth priorities.

What's priced into Henry Schein

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, reflecting a slight divergence as HSIC is seen as cheap compared to its peers. There is a small expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully recognize the potential for continued growth.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, given that management is on track to achieve its sales and EBITDA growth targets. However, there is a low probability of missing guidance, which is a risk to watch due to recent industry trends.

What Henry Schein hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and deliver consistent results. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers and overall economic conditions will be critical in shaping HSIC's trajectory.