Reading HRTG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, reported profits lack cash backing. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 50% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $22.29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $22 HRTG trades at 3× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $46 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 51% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.02x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.17 → $1.18 (+0.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 7.7% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$152.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$455.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,295.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report shows how well Heritage is doing financially. It also shows trends in performance.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) is higher than what analysts expected. This shows strong performance.
Confirms the other:EPS is lower than what analysts expected. This shows weak performance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HRTG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchan…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HRTG Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CB Chubb Limited | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Focus on prudent growth of the top line through agent relationships and reinsurer partnerships in 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue was $212.66M in 2026-Q1, slightly down from $215.32M in 2025-Q4. The focus on prudent growth is newly stated, and the trajectory shows limited progress so far.
“we believe we have the right agent relationships, reinsurer partnerships...”
Aim to return policy count to growth over the next six months, setting a path for full-year policy growth in 2026.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The company aims to return policy count to growth, but no specific policy count numbers are provided in the financials. The trajectory is unclear due to lack of specific data.
“we expect our policy count to return to growth over the next six months...”
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below its median, it signals a slowdown in the sector. This could hurt Heritage's performance.
Confirms:Heritage's revenue growth drops below the median of 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Conditions. On March 9, 2026, Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its fiscal quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as…
above and the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 while at the conference. The information furnished under Items 2.02 and 7.01 of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference…
Results of Operations and Financial Conditions. On November 5, 2025, Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (t…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On September 23, 2025, Mark Berset notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of the Company that he would be retiring from the Board to pursue other opportunities, effective immediately. There are no disagreements with Mr. Berset regarding any matter relating to the Company’s operations, policies or practices. The Company thanks Mr. Berset…