Reading HP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HP free→Reading HP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HP free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, HP is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $37.01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $37 HP trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $43 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $35–$43. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 23%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated weak grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.46x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.09 → $0.08 (-3.5% / 30d). 5 raised, 0 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$163.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$444.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,711.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Staying in this margin range shows stability in offshore work. This is key for cash flow.
Confirms:Offshore Solutions reports direct margin of $24 million to $28 million in Q3.
Disproves:Direct margin falls below $20 million for Offshore Solutions in Q3.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
OTHER EVENTS The Directors of Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (the " Company "), at a Board of Directors meeting held on June 3, 2026, declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share on the Company's common stock, payable on September 1, 2026, to stockholders of record at the close of business August 18, 2026. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunt…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$35.00 – $43.00 (median $41.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Energy (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HP Helmerich & Payne, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 13 of 100 | fair | moderate |
FTI TechnipFMC | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
PR Permian Resources | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
OVV Ovintiv | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
VNOM Viper Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Helmerich & Payne is expanding the deployment of its FlexRobotics Technology to support growing customer demand.
Helmerich & Payne is focusing on improving the direct margin in its North America Solutions segment.
Helmerich & Payne aims to achieve its guidance for the Offshore Solutions segment's direct margin.
Helmerich & Payne is committed to maintaining its capital expenditure guidance for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Managing this bond is key for H&P's finances and future spending.
Confirms one read:Management announces a plan to address the $350 million bond with strong free cash flow.
Confirms the other:No clear plan has been shared. This raises worries about financial stability.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company is improving its financial health. Investors look for signs of recovery or continued losses.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a profit or smaller loss compared to previous quarters.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a larger loss than expected or no improvement.
Why it matters: If energy sector revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a recovery for Helmerich & Payne. This would help the company improve its performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth rate increases back toward previous highs, above 6%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth continues to slow or remains below 6%.
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. On March 10, 2026, J. Kevin Vann informed Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (the “Company”) that he will retire from his position as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the Company effective June 30, 2026 (the “Transition Date”). Mr. Vann’s decision to retire is not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter regarding the…
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. At the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders of Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (the “ Company ”) held on March 4, 2026 (the “ 2026 Annual Meeting ”), the Company's stockholders approved the Helmerich & Payne, Inc. Amended & Restated 2024 Omnibus Incentive Plan (the “ A&R 2024 Plan ”). The A&R 2024 Plan is a stock and cash-based incentive plan and includes pr…
OTHER EVENTS The Directors of Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (the " Company "), at a Board of Directors meeting held on March 4, 2026, declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share on the Company's common stock, payable on June 1, 2026, to stockholders of record at the close of business May 18, 2026. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly…