Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$38.95+4.90%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Helmerich & Payne, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.07B
EPS	—	0.303
Annual ending 2027-09-30
Revenue	—	4.3B
EPS	—	1.494
Annual ending 2028-09-30
Revenue	—	4.53B
EPS	—	2.143

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures remain near $290 million next quarter	The company maintains stable capital spending around $290 million next quarter.	Intact	CAPEX deviates by more than 10% from $290 million in 2026-Q3	Capital expenditures: $69.773M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$290 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 6, 202669,773,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
North America Solutions direct margin stays near or above $215 million	Offshore Solutions direct margin exceeded guidance midpoint despite a small decline.	Broken	direct margin falls below $215 million in any quarter after 2026-Q2	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. North America Solutions direct margin increased from $215M in 2026-Q2 to $241M in 2026-Q3, with operating income rising from $111M to $140M. Management emphasized strong operational execution and rig deployment, indicating delivery and growth in this segment's margin. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Offshore Solutions direct margin meets or exceeds guidance midpoint near $27 million	Offshore Solutions direct margin exceeded guidance midpoint despite a small decline.	Improving	direct margin falls below $27 million in any quarter after 2026-Q2	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Offshore Solutions direct margin increased from $27M in 2026-Q2 to $29M in 2026-Q3, with operating income rising from $14M to $17M. Management highlighted long-term contract renewals and stable cash flow, indicating consistent delivery against guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Company revenue grows at least 4.9% year-over-year	A primary condition in Helmerich & Payne, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 4.9% YoY.	Intact	revenue growth falls below 4.9% year-over-year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$4.53B

$4.44B → $4.53B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$4,435,155,014	3 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$4,435,155,014	3 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$4,476,141,310	4 / 7
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$4,476,141,310	4 / 7
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$4,476,141,310	4 / 7
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$4,504,248,646	4 / 7
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$4,504,248,646	4 / 8
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$4,504,248,646	4 / 8
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$4,504,248,646	4 / 8
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$4,504,248,646	4 / 8
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$4,504,248,646	4 / 8
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$4,504,248,646	4 / 8
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$4,500,457,747	4 / 8
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$4,494,517,998	4 / 8
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$4,500,551,177	4 / 9
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$4,500,551,177	4 / 9
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$4,500,551,177	4 / 9
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$4,493,164,968	4 / 9
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$4,493,164,968	4 / 9
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$4,493,164,968	4 / 9
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$4,526,992,775	4 / 9
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$4,526,992,775	4 / 9
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$4,526,992,775	4 / 9
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$4,526,992,775	4 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	8	1
2026-06-01	7	8	1
2026-07-01	7	8	1
2026-08-01	7	8	1
2026-09-01	7	8	2
2026-10-01	8	7	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 12 · prior Oct 2

$49.00 → $50.00+2.0%

SusquehannaOct 5 · prior May 8

$43.00 → $50.00+16.3%

$0$27.50$55.00

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures remain near $290 million next quarterCapital expenditures: $69.773M
North America Solutions direct margin stays near or above $215 millionPublished status: Broken
Offshore Solutions direct margin meets or exceeds guidance midpoint near $27 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Company revenue grows at least 4.9% year-over-yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 18, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

HP is an energy-sector business with a sector tailwind, but its current thesis is in a watch state rather than a clear operating recovery. The long-term thesis has some support from improving North America and Offshore Solutions margins, while recent execution signals remain mixed.

What's priced into Helmerich & Payne, Inc.

The evidence describes HP as cheap versus peers, but also flags a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear ahead of what the model currently supports. Confidence in that valuation reading is low, and the evidence does not indicate that a severe combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and sector turmoil is priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings risk is elevated after recent misses, and the signal has shifted from mixed to cautious. Over the multi-year view, North America and Offshore Solutions margins have improved, while FlexRobotics deployments and contracts show commercial progress without quantified revenue or margin impact.

What Helmerich & Payne, Inc. hinges on

The next earnings call is a key near-term test: a guidance cut would add pressure to an already cautious fundamental picture. Over the broader view, the thesis also depends on continued margin execution and robotics deployment, alongside whether energy-sector bellwethers keep supporting or weaken the sector tailwind.

Bottom line

The 1-to-3-year read is mixed: segment margins and robotics activity offer support, but repeated earnings misses and a low-confidence valuation view leave meaningful execution risk. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.