Reading HGBL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HGBL free→Reading HGBL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HGBL free→NASDAQFinancialsCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with HGBL trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 46% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.27. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.27 HGBL trades at 13× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $2.38 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 46% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.26x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.03 → $0.03 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$149.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$382.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,957.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can change how people feel about the market. This may impact Heritage Global's business.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows stronger than expected growth.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows weaker than expected growth.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HGBL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. The information set forth under the subheading “Asset Purchase Agreement” in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Investment Banking & Brokerage.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HGBL Heritage Global Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
MS Morgan Stanley | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | full | moderate |
GS Goldman Sachs | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | full | moderate |
SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | moderate |
IBKR Interactive Brokers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it may signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Heritage Global's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choices can change interest rates and market conditions. This could influence Heritage Global's operations.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates or signals a hawkish stance.
Confirms the other:FOMC cuts interest rates or signals a dovish stance.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Asset Purchase Agreement On January 9, 2026, Heritage DebtX LLC (“Heritage DebtX LLC”), a Delaware limited liability company and wholly owned subsidiary of Heritage Global Inc., a Florida corporation (“HG” or the “Company”) entered into an Asset Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with The Debt Exchange, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“DebtX”), pursuant to which, among other things, Heritage DebtX LLC acquired, effective January 1, 2026, su…