Reading HE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HE free→Reading HE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HE free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with HE trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.46. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $13 HE trades at 17× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $15 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 11% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1203).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.18x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated robust grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.26 → $0.28 (+9.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$104.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$331.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,348.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Higher costs may show ongoing problems and affect how much money is made.
Confirms:Q2 operations and maintenance costs are higher. This is due to inflation.
Disproves:Costs stay within or below the guidance given by management.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this current report on Form 8-K including HEI Exhibit 99 shall not be deemed “ filed ” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange Act), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. 1 SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrants have duly caused this…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electric Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HE Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 26 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SO Southern Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | low |
DUK Duke Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | low |
CEG Constellation Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | full | elevated |
AEP American Electric Power | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | full | low |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Address the anticipated increase in operations and maintenance expenses for 2026.
Focus on enhancing net income results compared to previous periods.
Why it matters: Settlement payments are important. They help with wildfire costs and rebuild community trust.
Confirms:All four $479 million settlement payments are made on schedule without delays.
Disproves:Any delays or issues in making the settlement payments arise.
Why it matters: If utility revenue growth speeds up, it may help Hawaiian Electric's outlook.
Confirms one read:Utility sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Utility sector revenue growth falls below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in unemployment claims can affect how much people spend and need energy. This impacts Hawaiian Electric's revenue.
Confirms one read:Unemployment claims drop a lot, showing a stronger job market.
Confirms the other:Unemployment claims are going up. This shows weakness in the economy.
Why it matters: Higher costs may show ongoing money management issues. This could hurt net income.
Confirms:Q2 operations and maintenance costs were over $200 million.
Disproves:Q2 operations and maintenance costs were under $200 million.
Why it matters: A drop in net income may show worse financial health. This could hurt investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 net income reported below $25 million.
Disproves:Q2 net income reported above $25 million.
Why it matters: Improving net income is a key management goal. It signals stronger financial health.
Confirms:Q2 net income increases year over year by more than 10%.
Disproves:Q2 net income declines year over year or stays flat.
Departure of Director or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Scott T. DeGhetto’s term as the Company’s Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer, or principal financial officer (“PFO”), ended on April 1, 2026. On April 6, 2026, the Company entered into a Consultant Services Agreement (the “Agreement”) with Mr. DeGhetto, through his wholly-owned and self-managed limited liability company, Emberstone,…
Other Events. On April 10, 2026, the final condition to payment occurred under settlement agreements dated November 1, 2024, that were designed to settle all tort-related claims in the litigation arising out of the 2023 Maui windstorm and wildfires (the “Settlement Agreements”). The final condition was that the judgment that Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (“HEI”) and Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc. (“Hawaiian Electric”) obtained on December 30, 2025, on the subrogation claims brought by o…
of this current report on Form 8-K including HEI Exhibit 99 shall not be deemed “ filed ” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange Act), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. 1 SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrants have duly caused this…
Other Events. On December 31, 2025, Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) and Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc. (“Hawaiian Electric”) entered into a Stipulation of Settlement (the “Derivative Settlement Agreement”) to resolve previously disclosed stockholder derivative actions brought nominally on their behalf against certain individual defendants. The Derivative Settlement Agreement resolves: (i) the action pending in the United States District Court for the District of Hawaii und…