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HCI Group, Inc. (HCI)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$163.23+1.73%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 32% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact HCI's outlook. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Insurance - Property & Casualty
- Market cap
- $2.05B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2008-04-30
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $163.23. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$240.48consensus
Range $87.13 – $246.55
vs price: -32% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$191.21consensus
Range $187.35 – $195.08
vs price: -15% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $163 HCI trades at 7× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $240 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
7.2x
peer 10.9x · own history 10.6x
Premium
0.7x peer
0.7x its own history
Growth the price needs
-32%
our forecast 23%
Our fair value
$240.48
range $127.50 – $245.33
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 32% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 23%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
82nd pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.33x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
57th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish2 analysts, 75% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.00 → $5.24. 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$138.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$337.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,765.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for Q2 gross loss ratio exceeding 20.1%
Why it matters: A higher gross loss ratio may show worse claims. This can hurt profits.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 gross loss ratio reported above 20.1%.
Disproves:Q2 gross loss ratio reported below 20.1%.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HCI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CB, PGR, and TRV keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting HCI and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If HCI raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If HCI cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like CB, PGR, and TRV start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping HCI and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on HCI and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0116d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. To mitigate risk from hurricanes, tornados, severe thunderstorms and other catastrophes, our two insurance subsidiaries, Homeowners Choice Property & Casualty Insurance Company, Inc. (“Homeowners Choice”) and TypTap Insurance Company (“TypTap”), and the two reciprocal insurers sponsored by HCI, Condo Owners Reciprocal Exchange (“CORE”) and Tailrow Insurance Exchange (“Tailrow”), secured comprehensive reinsurance programs for June 1, 2026 through May…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-05
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.