Reading GNE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GNE free→Reading GNE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GNE free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, GNE trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If GNE reverses course and raises guidance next quarter, that could signal a sharp positive shift. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.87. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 GNE trades at 22× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median. Our $17 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 17% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 23%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1203).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.49x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated fragile grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.27 → $0.25 (-7.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$106.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$370.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,247.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Interest rates can change utility stock values. They also affect borrowing costs.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates in the June 17 meeting.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GNE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 14, 2026, the Registrant distributed over a wire service and posted to the investor relations page of its website (www.genie.com), an earnings release announcing its results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the earnings release concerning the foregoing results is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The Registrant is furnishing the information contained in this Report, inc…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electric Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GNE Genie Energy Ltd. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 9 of 100 | fair | elevated |
SO Southern Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | low |
DUK Duke Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | fair | low |
CEG Constellation Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | fair | elevated |
AEP American Electric Power | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | full | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share to shareholders.
Target Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 between $32.5 million and $40 million.
Focus on enhancing cash flow from operating activities to support financial stability.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it may signal a positive shift in the utilities sector.
Confirms:Utilities sector revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 6% year over year.
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On April 1, 2026, Genie Energy Ltd. (the “Company”) received a notice of noncompliance (the “NYSE Notice”) from the New York Stock Exchange (“NYSE”) noting that the Company is not in compliance with Section 802.01E of the NYSE Listed Company Manual due to the delayed filing of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 (the “Form 10-K”). As previously…
of Form 8-K promulgated by the SEC. This information shall not be deemed to be “filed” with the SEC or incorporated by reference into any other filing with the SEC unless otherwise expressly stated in such filing. In addition, this Report and the press release contain statements intended as “forward-looking statements” that are subject to the cautionary statements about forward-looking statements set forth in the Release.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 19, 2026, the Registrant distributed over a wire service and posted to the investor relations page of its website (www.genie.com), an earnings release announcing its select preliminary estimated unaudited results of operations for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the earnings release concerning the foregoing results is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The Registrant i…
Non-Reliance on Previously Issued Financial Statements or a Related Audit Report or Completed Interim Review. On March 9, 2026, the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors of Genie Energy Ltd. (the “Company”) in consultation with the Company’s management concluded that the Company’s previously issued financial statements for the years ended December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023 contained in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K, and in the Company’s previously issued unaudited condense…