Reading DCH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 203% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.62. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.51, DCH's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 65× p/e (4.5× the 15× p/e peer median, and 3.0× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~201% near-term growth vs our ~15% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $2.16 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 201% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.29x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.15 → $0.15 (+2.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 55% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 57.2% above current price.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$248.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$532.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,244.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in margin may show problems or rising costs hurting profits.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margin is below 12.7% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin is 12.7% or higher for Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DCH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 8, 2026, Dauch Corporation, (“Dauch”) issued a press release regarding Dauch's financial results for the first quarter 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. SECTION 7 - REGULATION FD
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DCH Dauch Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on leveraging the Dowlais acquisition to boost revenue growth.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.41 billion in 2025-Q1 to $2.38 billion in 2026-Q1, driven by the Dowlais acquisition. The trajectory is delivering on the stated priority of leveraging the acquisition for revenue growth.
“CEO: 'The acquisition of Dowlais was the primary driver of year-over-year changes in financial results.'”
“CEO: 'With the exciting close of the transformational acquisition, we warmly welcome the Dowlais team.'”
“CEO: 'We are excited about the compelling value and long-term strategic benefits of this transformational acquisition.'”
Aim to reach the adjusted free cash flow target set for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted free cash flow was a use of $(40.8) million in 2026-Q1, against a target range of $235 - $325 million for the year. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the target.
Continue efforts to enhance gross profit margins through operational efficiencies.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross profit increased from $173.9 million in 2025-Q1 to $225.4 million in 2026-Q1, reflecting synergy benefits. The trajectory indicates progress in improving gross profit margins.
“CEO: 'Adjusted EBITDA includes synergy benefits of $50 - $75 million.'”
Why it matters: Sales growth shows good integration and market demand. This is key for long-term success.
Confirms:Q2 sales reach at least $2.5 billion.
Disproves:Q2 sales fall below $2.3 billion.
Why it matters: More synergies would help revenue growth and boost profits. This supports the acquisition plan.
Confirms:Synergies from Dowlais integration are more than $75 million.
Disproves:Synergies from Dowlais integration are less than $50 million.
Why it matters: Meeting the cash flow target shows Dauch can manage costs and operations after the buyout.
Confirms:Adjusted free cash flow for Q2 reaches at least $235 million.
Disproves:Adjusted free cash flow for Q2 falls below $235 million.
Why it matters: More savings would show good teamwork and strong operations after the deal.
Confirms:Dowlais has saved over $75 million.
Disproves:Savings are below $50 million.
Why it matters: Sales growth is key to prove the Dowlais acquisition is good and needed.
Confirms:Q2 sales growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 sales growth reported at 10% or higher year over year.
Why it matters: This growth is key to meeting Dauch's revenue targets. It shows if the strategy is working.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth from Dowlais exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth from Dowlais is below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Better margins mean Dauch is managing costs well. This can lead to making more money.
Confirms:Gross profit margins for Q2 improve to above 30%.
Disproves:Gross profit margins for Q2 fall below 25%.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 4, 2026, the board of directors of Dauch Corporation (“Dauch”) approved the Amended and Restated Dauch Corporation 2018 Omnibus Incentive Plan (the “Plan”), subject to the approval of stockholders. On April 30, 2026, at Dauch's 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, our stockholders approved the Plan. For a description of the Plan, please…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 4, 2026, the board of directors of Dauch Corporation (“Dauch”) approved the Amended and Restated Dauch Corporation 2018 Omnibus Incentive Plan (the “Plan”), subject to the approval of stockholders. On April 30, 2026, at Dauch's 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, our stockholders approved the Plan. For a description of the Plan, please…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 13, 2026, the Board of Directors of Dauch Corporation (the “Company”) approved the termination of the employment of Tolga Oal, President – Axle Systems, and authorized management to notify Mr. Oal that his employment would terminate effective April 16, 2026. Mr. Oal will receive severance benefits pursuant to the Company’s Amended and Rest…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 13, 2026, Dauch Corporation, (the “Company” or “Dauch”) issued a press release regarding Dauch's financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025. Dauch also provided its full year 2026 financial outlook. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. SECTION 7 - REGULATION FD
“Guidance: 'Adjusted free cash flow in the range of $235 - $325 million.'”
“Guidance: 'Adjusted free cash flow in the range of $235 - $325 million.'”
“CEO: 'We delivered strong fourth-quarter and full year Adjusted EBITDA margin growth.'”