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Dauch Corporation (DCH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this month
$6.62+1.77%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 203% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Auto Parts
- Market cap
- $1.51B
- Employees
- 18,000
- IPO date
- 1998-05-26
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-10
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.62. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$2.18consensus
Range $1.60 – $6.00
vs price: +203% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $6.51, DCH's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 65× p/e (4.5× the 15× p/e peer median, and 3.0× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~201% near-term growth vs our ~15% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $2.16 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
65.1x
peer 14.5x · own history 21.6x
Premium
4.5x peer
3.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
201%
our forecast 15%
Our fair value
$2.16
range $1.61 – $10.39
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premium
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 201% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
28th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -2.29x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish6 analysts, 55% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.15 → $0.15 (+2.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 55% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 57.2% above current price.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$248.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$532.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,244.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin below 12.7%
Why it matters: A drop in margin may show problems or rising costs hurting profits.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margin is below 12.7% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin is 12.7% or higher for Q2 2026.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DCH yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ORLY, AZO, and MOD keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting DCH and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If DCH beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a very large beat off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If DCH reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-08), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like ORLY, AZO, and MOD start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping DCH and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits DCH and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-081mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 8, 2026, Dauch Corporation, (“Dauch”) issued a press release regarding Dauch's financial results for the first quarter 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. SECTION 7 - REGULATION FD
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+5.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.